財經零距離 – 3/3/2023

Categories: 家族辦公室, 金融時事Published On: March 3rd, 202311.3 min readViews: 28598
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【市場更新】

1. 本週股市在連續下跌後週四迎來了強勁的反彈,部分新聞媒體歸功於聯準會官員Raphael Bostic表示聯準會可能在夏天時停止升息,但其實另一位聯準會官員Chris Waller在同一天提出因為經濟數據強勁,聯準會可能必需設定較之前更高的利率。債券市場顯然是相信Chris Waller的說法,利率持續走高。我們是認為這純粹是技術面的跌深反彈,與聯準會政策或經濟數據沒有太大關係,反彈或許可以再維持幾天,但沒有改變我們反彈是好賣點的看法。

  • 我們經常提到「反彈是好賣點」,有的讀者問是不是代表投資人應該在反彈時出清所有部位,等到好的買點再All in進場?當然不是,反彈是好賣點這句話主要是提醒大家如果你的投資組合之前的跌幅太大,應該趁反彈的時候減少高波動的部位,增加比較安全的投資。換句話說,我們不是企圖要抓最低點,而是希望大家不要在錯誤的時間增加高風險的投資。
  • 也有的投資人覺得股票反彈很強勁,像許多去年重傷的科技股今年都有100、200%的漲幅,為什麼不等到股票回本之後再調整?其實我們看下面這張圖(image 1)

就會發現如果股票已經跌深的情況下,即使有很大幅度的漲幅,還是距離回本很遙遠。更重要的是,市場沒有義務等你回本之後才恢復下跌。我們鼓勵長期投資,但還是要視個人風險承受能力量力而為,適度地調整投資組合可以走的更長久。

2. 原本許多分析師年初預期今年會經濟衰退,但在一月股市大漲後紛紛轉為樂觀,認為有可能會軟著陸(soft landing,經濟活動趨緩而不會經濟衰退),甚至是不會著陸(no landing,經濟活動甚至不會趨緩),所舉的例子五花八門,除了提出就業市場強勁這種實質上是落後指標的說法外,還有人提出原本利率倒掛的三個月及兩年期公債利率(i.e.三個月公債利率高於兩年期)又接近恢復正常,符合他們”不會著陸”的看法。

  • 從圖上(image 2)

可以清楚的看出原本倒掛的利率在經濟衰退前都會(接近)恢復正常,但從來沒有避免過經濟衰退的發生,更別提十年期及兩年期的利率倒掛,目前更為嚴重。沒有人會希望經濟衰退到來,但不能因為不希望生望就一廂情願地認為不會發生。

美國泛宇集團有超過30年的財務規劃與管理經驗,專業的六大管理板塊,橫跨地產、貸款、保險、投資、稅務服務、教育, 旗下5000+名合作獨立經紀人遍布全美各州與亞洲主要城市,是全美最大亞裔一站式全方位財富管理服務的標竿品牌。歡迎與泛宇聯絡,讓專業的團隊為您出謀劃策。

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圖片來源:網絡,版權歸原作者
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