財經零距離 – 3/4/2022
admin
SHARE
【市場更新】
1.股市在上週四跌深後開始反彈，但俄烏衝突加劇了市場的波動。除了俄烏本身的軍事衝突，市場更重視歐美各國對俄羅斯經濟制裁及俄羅斯潛在報復的威脅。目前雖然歐美各國對俄羅斯採取了不同的制裁手段，包括許多歐美企業撤出俄羅斯、凍結俄羅斯重要人士的海外財產、甚至是不允許俄羅斯銀行參與SWIFT外匯電文系統，但俄羅斯及歐美各國都同意俄羅斯輸出石油、天然氣不會中斷。我們看到俄羅斯的股票及債券市場受到重大影響、貨幣盧布也大幅貶值。俄國開始禁止外資出售股票、股市也暫停交易，這也導致俄羅斯股市有可能會從許多指數中被剔除。在現在這種情況下，俄羅斯的經濟受創最嚴重，歐洲的經濟也會受到影響，而對美國的衝擊則是相對較小。
- 我們認為上週四的跌深反彈對市場提供了強力的支撐，短期內市場不容易跌破上週四的低點，但在俄烏衝突終結之前，市場的波動無法避免。如果俄羅斯進一步升高反制力道，例如說終止輸出石油、天然氣，當然對俄羅斯經濟造成更嚴重的影響，但同時也會影響歐美經濟。
- 另外一個機率不高但影響難以估量的事件是俄羅斯的政府公債會不會違約，目前俄國央行已宣布對部分外國人持有的盧布計價公債將暫停付息，雖然金額及比例都不是特別重大，但其他外債是否會比照辦理值得關注。俄羅斯公債曾在1998年違約，導致美國的對沖基金長期資本管理(Long-Term Capital Management)遭受大幅損失，在紐約聯邦儲備銀行介入下才避免對整體金融市場的衝擊。自2014年以來美國政府已經禁止美國投資人投資美元計價的俄羅斯債券，所以長期資本管理的狀況直接重現機率不高，一樣屬於可以關心但不用過度擔心的問題。
- 另一個每隔一段時間就會被炒作的話題是美元會不會因為本次制裁失去其全球儲備貨幣的地位，我們的答案也一如既往的是「不會」。儲備貨幣必需同時具備交易量大、流動性高及不受限制自由轉換的條件，嚴格說來沒有貨幣完全符合這三個定義，美元即使在對俄央行制裁後依然是最接近理想儲備貨幣的首選。
2.聯準會主席Jerome Powell表示三月可能僅升息0.25%，最終的目標利率可能是2 – 2.5%之間。聯準會的升息會隨市場及經濟狀況調整。
【疫情更新】
香港每日確診人數再創新高。美國加州、奧勒岡州及華盛頓州預計於3/11取消在學校需戴口罩的規定，3/7起，紐約市將不再要求在餐廳用餐需要施打疫苗證明。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
Disclosure TransGlobal Advisory, LLC is a Registered Investment Adviser. This platform is solely for informational purposes. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where TransGlobal Advisory, LLC and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. No advice may be rendered by TransGlobal Advisory, LLC unless a client service agreement is in place. “Likes” are not intended to be endorsements of our firm, our advisors or our services. Please be aware that while we monitor comments and “likes” left on this page, we do not endorse or necessarily share the same opinions expressed by site users. While we appreciate your comments and feedback please be aware that any form of testimony from current or past clients about their experience with our firm is strictly forbidden under current securities laws. Please honor our request to limit your posts to industry-related educational information and comments. Third-party rankings and recognitions are no guarantee of future investment success and do not ensure that a client or prospective client will experience a higher level of performance or results. These ratings should not be construed as an endorsement of the advisor by any client nor are they representative of any one client’s evaluation. TransGlobal Advisory, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. TransGlobal Advisory, LLC may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions.
