財經零距離 – 4/09/2021
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【市場更新】
1. 「標普500 突破4000，接下來怎麼看?」
- 有可能再漲一點，但短期內會碰到回檔:
- 經濟上的好消息不再推動市場，暗示市場原本即已將這些樂觀因素納入考量。
- 已有相當大的資金流入股市：美國民眾投資股票占總資產比例創歷史新高。(Source: The Daily Shot)
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- 技術上來看在4090~4140間可能會開始回檔。
- 是不是應該出清股票還是買選擇權賣權保護資產?
- 對大部分人而言不建議: 除非能精準預測回檔的跌幅及速度，否則出清股票或是買賣權未必有利。如果觀眾朋友相信自己有這方面的需求，請務必諮詢專業經理人後再作決定。
- 比較保守的作法是可考慮將20%的投資組合轉作現金，再積極一點可以考慮賣選擇權買權，依然建議諮詢專業經理人後再作決定。
- 還有什麼可以作的?
- 我們之前提過今年看好美元，從三月初以來因為股票市場波動，美元轉強直到上週開始下跌。在預期未來股票市場回檔、美元有可能恢復強勢下，還有美元需求的觀眾朋友可以考慮趁這個機會再換一點。
- 美國長天期公債: 許多人覺得年利率2.3%的30年期美國公債不值得投資，但買公債也可以是為了資本利得。這一波的公債利率上漲可能已進入尾聲，如果30年期公債利率跌回年初的1.6%，長天期公債的ETF預期將會升值超過10%，是值得考慮的短期投資。
2. 拜登政府持續公布基礎建設法案細節，希望藉由透過基層民眾的支持對抗共和黨的反對聲浪。第一階段基礎建設法案著重於傳統基礎建設、研發、電網、高速寬頻及乾淨飲用水，共計$2.25兆美元。第二階段細節將於本月稍晚公布，預計總金額將推升至$3-4兆美元。
3. 為解決基礎建設法案財源，隨之而來的是針對美國企業的稅改方案，預期在未來10年增加$2.5兆的稅收，下列項目為主要內容。美國企業無意外表達不滿，商務部部長表示樂意溝通協商。
- 企業所得稅率由21%加至28%。
- 限制企業將總部移至低稅率國家。
- 年獲利超過$20億美元的公司需繳納15%的最低稅負，若立即施行估計僅有不到50間公司受影響。
【疫情更新】
- 美國每日施打疫苗超過三百萬劑，預期4/19前所有美國成年人都能施打疫苗。由於大量施打疫苗，美國過去一段期間每日新增確診數未像其他國家一樣大幅增加。但在變種病毒影響下，每日新增確診數開始上揚，部分人士警告美國可能進入第四波疫情。
【救市措施】
- 消費者金融保護局計畫將保護無力繳納房貸民眾的方案延長至2021年12月31日。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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