財經零距離 – 4/1/2022

Categories: 家族辦公室, 金融時事Published On: April 1st, 202211.1 min readViews: 24800

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【市場更新】

1. 股市最近兩週的反彈十分強勁，創下2020下半年以來最佳的兩週表現，特別是許多「迷因」股票(mem stocks)像是GameStop及AMC又重獲生機。此外，週二傳出俄烏雙方願意停火的消息後市場繼續攀升。不過一來事實證明停火和談沒有實質的進展，另外絕大部分人都不是戰略大師，對地綠事件的預測也不容易準確，不應該讓這方面的預測影響自己的投資決策。

從技術方面來看認為目前的短期反彈已經接近尾聲，未來一兩週內可能會在目前的價位價位橫向遊走甚至是向下調整。如果之前覺得很痛苦、不敢看對帳單的，應該趁現在賺錢的時候趕快檢視一下，趁機出清不適合長期持有的部位。

2. 我們上週提到美國10年期及2年期公債利差反轉是最準確的經濟衰退預測指標，結果週二盤中出現短暫反轉，週五收盤時已反轉(Source: Refinitiv Workspace)，我們今天進一步討論利差反轉對投資人有什麼影響。

不要相信這次不一樣(This time is different.): 一定會有很多分析師告訴你為什麼即使過去六次經濟退衰退前都發生利差反轉，但這次不一樣(This time is different.)這次不一樣是投資界中最危險的一句話，從統計來看我們當然不能說過去都發生，這次也一定發生。但既然是高機率發生的事件，沒有不事先作好準備的道理。
過去五次利差首次反轉後，標普500未來12個月的報酬皆為正數: 從這張圖可以看出在利差首次反轉後，五次的標普500未來12個月報酬都是正的，這不是告訴投資人現在是投資加碼的好時機，但是這提醒了投資人: 如果你現在就決定離開市場，那你可能沒有賺到本來可以賺到的報酬，那離你實現你的投資目標又更遙遠了。
7%~10%的跌幅股票市場常見的現象: 從原圖中也可以看出顯示即使12個月後賺錢，但中間其實很輕易就有7%~10%的跌幅，這是股票市場常見的現象，未必是利差反轉造成股市特別動盪。許多人都覺得標普500是美國最大的500家公司，走勢比較穩定。事實上，美國的確比其他國家穩定，大公司通常也比小公司波動來的小。但即使是標普500都會碰到這麼大的波動，那你買單一個股風險及波動只會更大而已。如果不能承受這樣的波動，就一定要分散投資不同的資產。
即使是最佳的經濟衰退預測指標也無法預期股市何時反轉: 2006年8月利差反轉後，2007年10月才是標普500的高點。而2019年8月反轉後，2020年2月股市就開始從高點下滑、短時間重挫超過30%。即使是利差反轉預測發生準確，也很難預測何時股市會反轉，這也是為什麼一般憑個人預測殺進殺出市場的投資策略長期必定失敗。

3. 新聞報導俄國計畫以美元支付以美元計價之公債，暫時消除市場對俄國違約或以盧布支付的疑慮。

【疫情更新】

中國上海封城，但主要製造業讓員工在工廠隔離，生產暫時不受影響，是否會對原本即已承壓的全球供應鍊產生新的衝擊值得關注。

圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者

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