財經零距離 – 4/10/2020
【市場更新】
a. 本周各大美國指數上漲，創下1974年以來最大單周漲幅，但事件本身仍無預測價值。
b. 自3/23低點以來，S&P 500已反彈~25%，我們的看法與之前相同: V型反彈不是不可能，但機率不大。熊市通常分成三個階段: 急跌、反彈、持續探底，熊市出現~20%的反彈並不少見。
(Source: TransGlobal Advisory, Advisorsperspective.com)
c. 但在Fed各類積極穩定金融市場的政策下(見下文)，空頭也將有所顧忌，未來即使持續探底，如同之前一樣快速下跌的機率相對較低。
d. 就業市場持續反應疫情影響: 本週四公布的上週美國首次申請失業救濟人口達660萬人，過去三週合計達1600萬人。
(Source: YCharts)
a. 沙特阿拉伯與俄羅斯在原油減產達成初步協議，但墨西哥突然退出，為減產合作增添不確定因素: 油價在週四上午協議確定前即開始上漲，但之後因諸多流言開始下跌，再次印證了”Buy the Rumor, Sell the News”的概念。
【疫情更新】
a. 截至星期五上午，全球病例達160萬人，共有97,207人死亡。
b. 美國的疫情控制看到一線曙光: 副總統Pence及美國疾病管制與預防中心(CDC)提出在符合特定條件下會建議美國經濟活動恢復正常。Dr. Fauci也指出雖然不能確定何時能恢復經濟活動，但他逐漸看到疫情受控制的希望。
c. 但部分之前認為疫情受控制的國家，出現不同的狀況:
i. 原本防疫表現良好的新加坡為因應突然增加的病例數，開始宣布非必要商家不得營業。
ii. 南韓研究顯示已痊癒病人體內的病毒有復發可能，最嚴重可能致命。
iii. 部分商家在中國武漢購物中心外抗議訴求調降租金。
【救市措施】
a. 聯準會持續擴大穩定金融市場的範圍，目前各計畫加總金額已達$2.3兆美元。
a. 參議院計畫對中小企業提出的新紓困方案，受到眾議院的阻撓: 眾議院希望將地方政府、醫院等機構加入此紓困方案。
*圖片來源於網路，所有權歸原作者
TransGlobal Advisory, LLC is a Registered Investment Adviser. This platform is solely for informational purposes. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where TransGlobal Advisory, LLC and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. No advice may be rendered by TransGlobal Advisory, LLC unless a client service agreement is in place.
“Likes” are not intended to be endorsements of our firm, our advisors or our services. Please be aware that while we monitor comments and “likes” left on this page, we do not endorse or necessarily share the same opinions expressed by site users. While we appreciate your comments and feedback please be aware that any form of testimony from current or past clients about their experience with our firm is strictly forbidden
under current securities laws. Please honor our request to limit your posts to industry-related educational information and comments.
Third-party rankings and recognitions are no guarantee of future investment success and do not ensure that a client or prospective client will experience a higher level of performance or results. These ratings should not be construed as an endorsement of the advisor by any client nor are
they representative of any one client’s evaluation.
TransGlobal Advisory, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. TransGlobal Advisory, LLC may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions.
【市場更新】
a. 本周各大美國指數上漲，創下1974年以來最大單周漲幅，但事件本身仍無預測價值。
b. 自3/23低點以來，S&P 500已反彈~25%，我們的看法與之前相同: V型反彈不是不可能，但機率不大。熊市通常分成三個階段: 急跌、反彈、持續探底，熊市出現~20%的反彈並不少見。
(Source: TransGlobal Advisory, Advisorsperspective.com)
c. 但在Fed各類積極穩定金融市場的政策下(見下文)，空頭也將有所顧忌，未來即使持續探底，如同之前一樣快速下跌的機率相對較低。
d. 就業市場持續反應疫情影響: 本週四公布的上週美國首次申請失業救濟人口達660萬人，過去三週合計達1600萬人。
(Source: YCharts)
a. 沙特阿拉伯與俄羅斯在原油減產達成初步協議，但墨西哥突然退出，為減產合作增添不確定因素: 油價在週四上午協議確定前即開始上漲，但之後因諸多流言開始下跌，再次印證了”Buy the Rumor, Sell the News”的概念。
【疫情更新】
a. 截至星期五上午，全球病例達160萬人，共有97,207人死亡。
b. 美國的疫情控制看到一線曙光: 副總統Pence及美國疾病管制與預防中心(CDC)提出在符合特定條件下會建議美國經濟活動恢復正常。Dr. Fauci也指出雖然不能確定何時能恢復經濟活動，但他逐漸看到疫情受控制的希望。
c. 但部分之前認為疫情受控制的國家，出現不同的狀況:
i. 原本防疫表現良好的新加坡為因應突然增加的病例數，開始宣布非必要商家不得營業。
ii. 南韓研究顯示已痊癒病人體內的病毒有復發可能，最嚴重可能致命。
iii. 部分商家在中國武漢購物中心外抗議訴求調降租金。
【救市措施】
a. 聯準會持續擴大穩定金融市場的範圍，目前各計畫加總金額已達$2.3兆美元。
a. 參議院計畫對中小企業提出的新紓困方案，受到眾議院的阻撓: 眾議院希望將地方政府、醫院等機構加入此紓困方案。
*圖片來源於網路，所有權歸原作者
Disclosure
TransGlobal Advisory, LLC is a Registered Investment Adviser. This platform is solely for informational purposes. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where TransGlobal Advisory, LLC and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. No advice may be rendered by TransGlobal Advisory, LLC unless a client service agreement is in place.
“Likes” are not intended to be endorsements of our firm, our advisors or our services. Please be aware that while we monitor comments and “likes” left on this page, we do not endorse or necessarily share the same opinions expressed by site users. While we appreciate your comments and feedback please be aware that any form of testimony from current or past clients about their experience with our firm is strictly forbidden
under current securities laws. Please honor our request to limit your posts to industry-related educational information and comments.
Third-party rankings and recognitions are no guarantee of future investment success and do not ensure that a client or prospective client will experience a higher level of performance or results. These ratings should not be construed as an endorsement of the advisor by any client nor are
they representative of any one client’s evaluation.
TransGlobal Advisory, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. TransGlobal Advisory, LLC may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions.
