財經零距離 – 4/17/2020
【市場更新】
a. 本周各大美國指數持續反彈，Nasdaq 100今年至今績效轉正。
b. IMF預期今年全球經濟成長-3%，依IMF 2009年的標準，這有可能是自1970年來第五次全球經濟衰退。
i. 在全球化的時代，沒有任何國家可以置身事外。
ii. 美國通常可以藉由刺激內需(美國民間消費占GDP超過70%)及控制美元擺脫經濟衰退。
iii.其他國家 – 特別是出口導向及外債高的國家就難以擺脫其他國家經濟及政策的影響。
(Source: TransGlobal Advisory, NBER, Wikipedia, IMF)
c. 中國第一季GDP成長為-6.8% ，因為每個國家經濟封鎖時點及經濟結構不同，我們無法單純由此數據推估其他國家的情況，但數字顯示也許疫情對全球經濟的短期影響不會發展成最悲觀的情境。
d. 本週四公布的上週美國首次申請失業救濟人數達525萬人，過去四週合計達2200萬人。由Google搜尋趨勢來看，之後申請失業救濟人數會持續減少，代表疫情造成的第一波失業潮可能已過高峰。
(Source: The Daily Shot)
e. OPEC+在上周末達成減產協議，但市場普遍認為減產規模並未回應全球因疫情減少的油品需求，油價持續探底。
【疫情更新】
a. 截至星期五上午，全球病例達222萬人，共有149,381人死亡。
b. 報告顯示Gilead Science Inc.用以治療伊波拉病毒的藥品remedesivir對治療冠狀病毒有幫助。
c. 美國聯邦政府宣布未來各州開放經濟的指導原則，由各州決定實際開放時點。歐洲各國也開始逐步放寬之前的商業、生活限制。
d. 但在歐美看似度過第一波疫情高峰的新聞下，亞洲有新的變化:
i. 中國新增確診人數在低點後逐漸增加。因半數新增案例來自俄羅斯，中國決定封鎖部分中俄邊界。
(Source: The Daily Shot)
ii. 日本全國進入緊急狀態。
e. 全球疫情可能已過第一波高峰，但疫情對經濟帶來的傷害以及最壞情況下是否會有第二波疫情都需要注意。
【救市措施】
對中小企業融資的$3,500億貸款額度已用罄，顯示此政策符合人民需要，國會持續討論追加額度。
*圖片來源於網路，所有權歸原作者
TransGlobal Advisory, LLC is a Registered Investment Adviser. This platform is solely for informational purposes. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where TransGlobal Advisory, LLC and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. No advice may be rendered by TransGlobal Advisory, LLC unless a client service agreement is in place.
“Likes” are not intended to be endorsements of our firm, our advisors or our services. Please be aware that while we monitor comments and “likes” left on this page, we do not endorse or necessarily share the same opinions expressed by site users. While we appreciate your comments and feedback please be aware that any form of testimony from current or past clients about their experience with our firm is strictly forbidden
under current securities laws. Please honor our request to limit your posts to industry-related educational information and comments.
Third-party rankings and recognitions are no guarantee of future investment success and do not ensure that a client or prospective client will experience a higher level of performance or results. These ratings should not be construed as an endorsement of the advisor by any client nor are
they representative of any one client’s evaluation.
TransGlobal Advisory, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. TransGlobal Advisory, LLC may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions.
【市場更新】
a. 本周各大美國指數持續反彈，Nasdaq 100今年至今績效轉正。
b. IMF預期今年全球經濟成長-3%，依IMF 2009年的標準，這有可能是自1970年來第五次全球經濟衰退。
i. 在全球化的時代，沒有任何國家可以置身事外。
ii. 美國通常可以藉由刺激內需(美國民間消費占GDP超過70%)及控制美元擺脫經濟衰退。
iii.其他國家 – 特別是出口導向及外債高的國家就難以擺脫其他國家經濟及政策的影響。
(Source: TransGlobal Advisory, NBER, Wikipedia, IMF)
c. 中國第一季GDP成長為-6.8% ，因為每個國家經濟封鎖時點及經濟結構不同，我們無法單純由此數據推估其他國家的情況，但數字顯示也許疫情對全球經濟的短期影響不會發展成最悲觀的情境。
d. 本週四公布的上週美國首次申請失業救濟人數達525萬人，過去四週合計達2200萬人。由Google搜尋趨勢來看，之後申請失業救濟人數會持續減少，代表疫情造成的第一波失業潮可能已過高峰。
(Source: The Daily Shot)
e. OPEC+在上周末達成減產協議，但市場普遍認為減產規模並未回應全球因疫情減少的油品需求，油價持續探底。
【疫情更新】
a. 截至星期五上午，全球病例達222萬人，共有149,381人死亡。
b. 報告顯示Gilead Science Inc.用以治療伊波拉病毒的藥品remedesivir對治療冠狀病毒有幫助。
c. 美國聯邦政府宣布未來各州開放經濟的指導原則，由各州決定實際開放時點。歐洲各國也開始逐步放寬之前的商業、生活限制。
d. 但在歐美看似度過第一波疫情高峰的新聞下，亞洲有新的變化:
i. 中國新增確診人數在低點後逐漸增加。因半數新增案例來自俄羅斯，中國決定封鎖部分中俄邊界。
(Source: The Daily Shot)
ii. 日本全國進入緊急狀態。
e. 全球疫情可能已過第一波高峰，但疫情對經濟帶來的傷害以及最壞情況下是否會有第二波疫情都需要注意。
【救市措施】
對中小企業融資的$3,500億貸款額度已用罄，顯示此政策符合人民需要，國會持續討論追加額度。
*圖片來源於網路，所有權歸原作者
TransGlobal Advisory, LLC is a Registered Investment Adviser. This platform is solely for informational purposes. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where TransGlobal Advisory, LLC and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. No advice may be rendered by TransGlobal Advisory, LLC unless a client service agreement is in place.
“Likes” are not intended to be endorsements of our firm, our advisors or our services. Please be aware that while we monitor comments and “likes” left on this page, we do not endorse or necessarily share the same opinions expressed by site users. While we appreciate your comments and feedback please be aware that any form of testimony from current or past clients about their experience with our firm is strictly forbidden
under current securities laws. Please honor our request to limit your posts to industry-related educational information and comments.
Third-party rankings and recognitions are no guarantee of future investment success and do not ensure that a client or prospective client will experience a higher level of performance or results. These ratings should not be construed as an endorsement of the advisor by any client nor are
they representative of any one client’s evaluation.
TransGlobal Advisory, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. TransGlobal Advisory, LLC may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions.
