財經零距離 – 4/22/2022
admin
SHARE
【市場更新】
1. 週三之前市場大體上漲，但之後因為聯準會主席Jerome Powell暗示五月會升息0.5%，以及將採取更積極的手段控制通貨膨脹而迅速下跌。這兩天的跌幅有可能即將告一段落，市場有機會迎來跌深反彈，我們維持反彈是賣點的看法，錯過三月中以及本週二反彈的投資人應該把握這次機會調整不適合長期持有的部位。
2. 近來有聽說部分研究認為五月會大跌，我們的看法是:
- 五月的確有幾件可能影響市場的大事: 聯準會可能升息兩碼0.5%(這是目前市場預期，也是聯準會主席Jerome Powell週四的暗示)，俄國公債可能違約(請見下文)。但這些事件可能發生也可能不發生，即使發生也不能確保事後發展方向與預期相符。認真說來，隨時都可能有大事發生。馬克吐溫曾說”十月，是炒股最危險的月份，其他危險的月份有七月、一月、九月、四月、十一月、五月、三月、六月、十二月、八月和二月。”
- 如果等著之後進場撿便宜，我們建議先區分長期投資及投機的行為: 利用分散的投資組合長期投資以達到個人的投資目標(退休、傳承、教育基金…)，另外可以投機在適當範圍內短期進出市場企圖賺取超額報酬(投機未必是壞事，就好像買彩券只要不傾家盪產去買也不是壞事)。這種大跌之後進場的想法適合投機，但不適合長期投資。另外，即使是真的大跌了，也要評估是否已到達合理的價位，不是盲目覺得下跌都是買點。
3. Netflix在公布用戶減少後，股價在週三暴跌35%，自高點$700下跌近70%，等同抹消了過去三年的漲幅。
知名的對沖基金經理人Bill Ackman認賠賣出今年一月買進的三百萬股Netflix，實現損失四億美金。
- 當大家看好Netflix的時候，一切的問題都有答案: Netflix有很多受歡迎的影集(還記得魷魚遊戲嗎?)、全球都是Netflix的市場，有無窮的成長潛力、疫情期間大家只能在家追劇、就算疫情解封之後，民眾還是會習慣繼續觀看Netflix…
- 當事情不如預期時，一切的答案都有問題，大家突然發現: 原創劇集的成本持續升高、與其他串流業者的競爭日趨激烈、許多人共用帳號密碼導致收入減少、疫情解封之後，在家中追劇不再是唯一的娛樂、即使是全球市場也不是每個人都願意付錢看串流。
- Bill Ackman依然說Netflix是個很好的公司，但承認他沒有足夠的信心能預測公司的前景。不單是Netflix，任何股價極端依賴未來表現的成長股都將面臨相同的問題，如果投資人覺得自己能合理預期快速成長公司的前景，務必切記「你知道」跟「你覺得」是完全不同的兩件事。
4. 信用違約交換市場的14個交易對手一致認定俄羅斯在四月六日以盧布支付以美元計價債券的債權人行為與原始條件不符。如果俄羅斯不能在五月四日前改以美金支付債權人，將是自1918年以來首次的俄羅斯外債違約。
【疫情更新】
香港每日確診人數逐漸減少，上海疫情開始對中國內部供應鍊產生影響。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
Disclosure TransGlobal Advisory, LLC is a Registered Investment Adviser. This platform is solely for informational purposes. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where TransGlobal Advisory, LLC and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. No advice may be rendered by TransGlobal Advisory, LLC unless a client service agreement is in place. “Likes” are not intended to be endorsements of our firm, our advisors or our services. Please be aware that while we monitor comments and “likes” left on this page, we do not endorse or necessarily share the same opinions expressed by site users. While we appreciate your comments and feedback please be aware that any form of testimony from current or past clients about their experience with our firm is strictly forbidden under current securities laws. Please honor our request to limit your posts to industry-related educational information and comments. Third-party rankings and recognitions are no guarantee of future investment success and do not ensure that a client or prospective client will experience a higher level of performance or results. These ratings should not be construed as an endorsement of the advisor by any client nor are they representative of any one client’s evaluation. TransGlobal Advisory, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. TransGlobal Advisory, LLC may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions.
