財經零距離 – 4/28/2023
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【市場更新】
1. 部分科技龍頭股公布的營運數據優於市場預期，帶動市場上漲，特別是科技股為主的納斯達克綜合指數漲勢最為猛烈。
- “軟”的科技龍頭股表現優於預期: Meta(臉書的母公司)、微軟、Google表現都不錯。Amazon原本公布的第一季營收及獲利也優於市場預期，帶動股價週四盤後一度上漲11%，但之後企業高管警告AWS雲服務(Amazon Web Services)因經濟不確定因素可能成長趨緩，抹消了原本的漲幅。
- “硬”的科技公司表現不佳: 受全球半導體需求降低影響，三星單季獲利減少95%，Intel連續第五科營收衰退且創下有史以來最大的單季虧損。
- 規模較小的科技公司表現也不理想: Lyft、Dropbox、Clubhouse皆宣布裁員。Snap上市後首次營收衰退。
- 維持之前的看法, 標普500突破2/2高點的機率不大，有可能向下挑戰3/13的區間低點，也就是可能會看到一個10%的修正。
2. First Republic Bank第一季流失一千億存款的消息讓人再次擔心銀行業危機是否真已平息。從三月矽谷銀行被接管以來，我們一直強調矽谷銀行不會是最後一定結束營業的銀行，但美國存保體系依然值得信任。
- First Republic Bank在2022年第四季季底尚有存款近$1,800億，但第一季季底僅剩$1千億，其中還包括其他大銀行資助的$300億存款，而這$300億存款預期將於七月中到期，是否續存尚不確定，存戶的大量流失已影響到該銀行是否能繼續營運。在週五盤後新聞媒體報導該銀行已被FDIC接管。
- 不用過度恐慌…: 只要在該銀行存款不超過存保上限$250,000，而且有辦法支應兩、三天的生活所需，該銀行被FDIC接管也不是太嚴重的問題。
- …但First Republic Bank依然不會是最後一家有風險的銀行: 雖然First Republic Bank規模未必大到會產生連鎖反應，但矽谷銀行及First Republic Bank的利率風險問題依然存在於其他銀行。此外，未來的經濟衰退也會對銀行的資產品質產生影響。每看到一家銀行出事，就認為這將是最後一家出事的銀行是不切實際的想法。
- 適度分散風險: 在任一銀行存款超過存保上限的部分可以考慮美國短期的公債或是一些program將存款分散到不同的銀行，一樣可以享受高利，同時又有高流動性及更高金額的保護。
美國泛宇集團有超過30年的財務規劃與管理經驗，專業的六大管理板塊，橫跨地產、貸款、保險、投資、稅務服務、教育, 旗下5000+名合作獨立經紀人遍布全美各州與亞洲主要城市，是全美最大亞裔一站式全方位財富管理服務的標竿品牌。歡迎與泛宇聯絡，讓專業的團隊為您出謀劃策。
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