財經零距離 – 4/3/2020
【市場更新】
1. 本周各大美國指數下跌，道瓊工業指數在4/1創下有史以來開季當日最大跌幅，但事件本身並無預測價值。
2. 就業市場持續反應疫情影響: 本週四公布的上週美國首次申請失業救濟人口達6.6百萬人
( Source: YCharts)
失業率4.4%，為2017年以來最高水準。
(Source: YCharts)
i. 失業率僅涵蓋三月前半月資料，考量三月後半月的首次申請失業救濟人口，未來失業率數字將更為惡化，未來各界估計失業率為15% ~30%不等。
ii. 部分新聞媒體將週五股市下跌歸咎於勞動市場數據不佳，實際上S&P 500期貨市場在消息公布後雖短暫下跌，但之後持續上漲直到股市開盤10分鐘後，兩者關聯並不顯著。
iii. 勞動市場數據惡化在疫情影響下不可避免，勞動市場本身也是落後指標，未來股市表現仍然取決於疫情何時能受到控制。
3. 油價在週四、週五兩天巨幅變化。
(Source: Finviz.com)
i. 川普總統在週四發出推特宣稱世界各大產油國將聯手減產一千萬桶原油，油價在短時間內上漲40%。
ii. 之後新聞指出沙特阿拉伯及俄羅斯皆尚未同意減產計畫，油價稍微走低。
iii. 週五上午傳出OPEC+將在星期一視訊會議討論相關議題，油價創新高。
iv. 重點依然在於全球供需是否平衡，部分估計指出全球需求衰退遠超過一千萬桶*，若供需平衡無法短期達成，仍將持續對油價產生壓力。
4. 再次強調投資人應該長期持有充分分散風險投資組合，任何短期投資想法建議諮詢專業經理人。
i. 投資人往往經由新聞媒體得到一個錯誤的印象: 事件因果關係很明顯，只要能猜對事件發展，就能從金融市場獲利。
ii. 請記住:新聞記者的工作是從已經發生的既成事實中找出因果關係來說服讀者，而短期投資獲利需要的下列三項因素，新聞媒體無法提供實際的協助。
(1) 時機正確 <-> 已經發生
(2) 正確預測事件發生 <-> 既成事實
(3) 市場反應與投資人預期一致 <-> (找出)因果關係
【疫情更新】
1. 截至星期五上午，全球病例破百萬人，共有55,134人死亡。
2. 中國河南郟縣二次封城，復工是否有可能導致已控制的疫情復發引發關注。
3. 美國紐約州單日死亡人數創新高，重申上週的觀點: 在前幾週確診人數急速增加時就難以避免死亡人數劇增的壞消息，重點依然是確診人數增加速度是否趨緩。
【救市措施】
政府救市
1. 眾議院發言人Nancy Pelosi將調整她新提出的$8千億救市方案，以求能獲得共和黨的同意。
i. 雖然此方案主軸為基礎建設，但內容未獲得兩黨共識，共和黨也質疑未來將以何種財源支付。
ii. 目前估計美國預算赤字將創下二次世界大戰以來最高金額。
(Source: YCharts)
*圖片來源於網路，所有權歸原作者
Disclosure
TransGlobal Advisory, LLC is a Registered Investment Adviser. This platform is solely for informational purposes. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where TransGlobal Advisory, LLC and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. No advice may be rendered by TransGlobal Advisory, LLC unless a client service agreement is in place.
“Likes” are not intended to be endorsements of our firm, our advisors or our services. Please be aware that while we monitor comments and “likes” left on this page, we do not endorse or necessarily share the same opinions expressed by site users. While we appreciate your comments and feedback please be aware that any form of testimony from current or past clients about their experience with our firm is strictly forbidden
under current securities laws. Please honor our request to limit your posts to industry-related educational information and comments.
Third-party rankings and recognitions are no guarantee of future investment success and do not ensure that a client or prospective client will experience a higher level of performance or results. These ratings should not be construed as an endorsement of the advisor by any client nor are
they representative of any one client’s evaluation.
TransGlobal Advisory, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. TransGlobal Advisory, LLC may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions.
【市場更新】
1. 本周各大美國指數下跌，道瓊工業指數在4/1創下有史以來開季當日最大跌幅，但事件本身並無預測價值。
2. 就業市場持續反應疫情影響: 本週四公布的上週美國首次申請失業救濟人口達6.6百萬人
( Source: YCharts)
失業率4.4%，為2017年以來最高水準。
(Source: YCharts)
i. 失業率僅涵蓋三月前半月資料，考量三月後半月的首次申請失業救濟人口，未來失業率數字將更為惡化，未來各界估計失業率為15% ~30%不等。
ii. 部分新聞媒體將週五股市下跌歸咎於勞動市場數據不佳，實際上S&P 500期貨市場在消息公布後雖短暫下跌，但之後持續上漲直到股市開盤10分鐘後，兩者關聯並不顯著。
iii. 勞動市場數據惡化在疫情影響下不可避免，勞動市場本身也是落後指標，未來股市表現仍然取決於疫情何時能受到控制。
3. 油價在週四、週五兩天巨幅變化。
(Source: Finviz.com)
i. 川普總統在週四發出推特宣稱世界各大產油國將聯手減產一千萬桶原油，油價在短時間內上漲40%。
ii. 之後新聞指出沙特阿拉伯及俄羅斯皆尚未同意減產計畫，油價稍微走低。
iii. 週五上午傳出OPEC+將在星期一視訊會議討論相關議題，油價創新高。
iv. 重點依然在於全球供需是否平衡，部分估計指出全球需求衰退遠超過一千萬桶*，若供需平衡無法短期達成，仍將持續對油價產生壓力。
4. 再次強調投資人應該長期持有充分分散風險投資組合，任何短期投資想法建議諮詢專業經理人。
i. 投資人往往經由新聞媒體得到一個錯誤的印象: 事件因果關係很明顯，只要能猜對事件發展，就能從金融市場獲利。
ii. 請記住:新聞記者的工作是從已經發生的既成事實中找出因果關係來說服讀者，而短期投資獲利需要的下列三項因素，新聞媒體無法提供實際的協助。
(1) 時機正確 <-> 已經發生
(2) 正確預測事件發生 <-> 既成事實
(3) 市場反應與投資人預期一致 <-> (找出)因果關係
【疫情更新】
1. 截至星期五上午，全球病例破百萬人，共有55,134人死亡。
2. 中國河南郟縣二次封城，復工是否有可能導致已控制的疫情復發引發關注。
3. 美國紐約州單日死亡人數創新高，重申上週的觀點: 在前幾週確診人數急速增加時就難以避免死亡人數劇增的壞消息，重點依然是確診人數增加速度是否趨緩。
【救市措施】
政府救市
1. 眾議院發言人Nancy Pelosi將調整她新提出的$8千億救市方案，以求能獲得共和黨的同意。
i. 雖然此方案主軸為基礎建設，但內容未獲得兩黨共識，共和黨也質疑未來將以何種財源支付。
ii. 目前估計美國預算赤字將創下二次世界大戰以來最高金額。
(Source: YCharts)
*圖片來源於網路，所有權歸原作者
Disclosure
TransGlobal Advisory, LLC is a Registered Investment Adviser. This platform is solely for informational purposes. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where TransGlobal Advisory, LLC and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. No advice may be rendered by TransGlobal Advisory, LLC unless a client service agreement is in place.
“Likes” are not intended to be endorsements of our firm, our advisors or our services. Please be aware that while we monitor comments and “likes” left on this page, we do not endorse or necessarily share the same opinions expressed by site users. While we appreciate your comments and feedback please be aware that any form of testimony from current or past clients about their experience with our firm is strictly forbidden
under current securities laws. Please honor our request to limit your posts to industry-related educational information and comments.
Third-party rankings and recognitions are no guarantee of future investment success and do not ensure that a client or prospective client will experience a higher level of performance or results. These ratings should not be construed as an endorsement of the advisor by any client nor are
they representative of any one client’s evaluation.
TransGlobal Advisory, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. TransGlobal Advisory, LLC may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions.
