財經零距離 – 4/30/2021
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【市場更新】
1. 本週市場在科技龍頭股公布的營運數字超出預期的正面影響下再創新高，但除臉書表現不錯外，蘋果電腦、亞馬遜僅小漲，微軟甚至下跌。
- 為何在疫情下上述科技龍頭股業績不俗，但股價反應不如預期?主要是由於市場最在意的是未來展望而非過去的營運結果: 許多人之前為了在家工作買進iPad及個人電腦，在能部分回辦公室上班的情況下，未來銷售未必能持續之前的榮景。此外，隱私權的爭議及未來可能更嚴格的法令規範都將對科技股產生一定程度的影響。我們觀察從2020年1月至今的每股盈餘及股價，可以發現其實股價早已反應營運上的好消息。(Source: YCharts)
- 這種現象並不僅限於科技龍頭股，特斯拉雖然在本週公布的營運也優於預期，但由於無法給市場更大的驚喜，股價在公布營運結果後持續下跌，再次說明了「期待越大，失望越大」的道理。
- 類推到整體市場，雖然目前看來疫苗普遍施打導致疫情受到控制，經濟活動將更加熱絡，但如果市場早已考慮這些正面因素，即使之後發展一如預期，對市場的推升效果也有限。
- 相對的，目前市場至少無視了下面幾項負面因素: 未來可能的加稅、美國疫苗施打進展趨緩、印度疫情惡化而且全球許多國家施打疫苗比例不如美國。在市場極度樂觀下，只要少數事件未如預期般正面發展就可能對市場產生重大負面影響。
- 目前看來，整體市場頗有利多出盡的感覺，短線不宜追高，長期投資也應該要謹慎，並作好短期震盪的心理準備。
2. 聯準會在週三持續強調雖然經濟有所改善，但聯準會將持續對整體經濟活動的支持: 利率將維持歷史低點0-0.25%，也將在市場持續購買債券。針對民眾普遍擔心的通貨膨脹問題，聯準會表示目前的通貨膨脹僅是暫時現象，物價將隨主要受疫情影響的供給恢復正常水準。聯準會的預期未必正確，但在房租及薪資尚未上升前，我們也抱持目前沒有長期通貨膨脹的看法。
3. 美國第一季經濟成長1.6%(相當於年化6.4%)，符合市場預期。相形之下，歐洲因施打疫苗進展緩慢，第一季經濟衰退0.6%。
- 去年開始時美國防疫起步較晚, 相較中國及歐洲等主要經濟體疫情控制為差，許多人不看好美國未來的經濟成長。但美國在疫苗研發及取得上大幅領先中國及歐洲，再加上政府的紓困方案協助，經濟及金融市場表現搶眼。長期來看，憑藉自身的經濟實力及發達的金融市場，美國在投資人的全球布局中仍然扮演重要的角色。
4. 部分中間立場的參議員表示基礎建設法案正持續協商中，但不願支持拜登總統的$2.3兆版本。
【疫情更新】
- 雖然美國施打疫苗快速，但全球大部分國家施打疫苗進展不如預期。印度疫情持續惡化，部分人士擔心將擴散至其他國家。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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