財經零距離 – 5/07/2021
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【市場更新】
1. 財政部長Janet Yellen星期二時表示如果拜登政府的$4兆基礎建設方案通過，聯準會可能必需升息以抑制過熱的經濟，股票市場應聲下跌。Yellen旋即改口她並沒有預期或建議聯準會必需升息。Yellen同時也表示目前沒有通膨問題，即使有，聯準會也有工具解決。
- 雖然經濟活動逐漸復甦也對推升股市有所貢獻，但大量熱錢還是主要支撐市場的力量，這也是為什麼市場對Yellen「可能」升息的訊息如此敏感。星期五公布的就業數字不理想(市場預期新增1百萬就業人口，但實際只增加266,000人)，顯示經濟復甦至少暫時趨緩，但市場認為聯準會升息機率降低，市場反而上漲。
- 聯準會的經濟預測未必準確，很多時候也可能會高估自己解決問題的能力，但目前原物料短缺造成的通膨極有可能僅是暫時性，黃金或大宗商品在資產配置或長期避免通貨膨脹上有其必要，但要短期獲利在價格已高的情況下就有相當難度。
2. 很多人都知道ETF (Exchange Traded Fund有管理費低、流動性佳，而且可以用很低的門檻達成資產配置、分散風險的好處。但ETF在稅上也比傳統的共同基金有優勢，如果未來政府真的對富人取消資本利得稅的優惠，這個優勢將更為巨大:
- 因為結構的關係，共同基金在持有期間就有可能產生資本利得稅，根據Blackrock的研究，在2010年到2019年間，美國large cap的共同基金每年管理費約為0.9%，但稅的成本是每年1.8%，是管理費的二倍。
- 相形之下，ETF只有在出售時才會產生資本利得稅，有遞延支付所得稅的好處。
- 部分共同基金在優秀的經理人管理下有可能表現超越大盤或是ETF，但是投資人不只應該看稅前報酬，更應該考慮稅後報酬，畢竟能留在口袋裡的錢才是真正賺到的錢。
【疫情更新】
- 英國及美國都宣布進一步開放經濟活動，但印度疫情持續惡化，印度總理至今仍未宣布全國性封鎖。
【救市措施】
- 某位聯邦法官判決CDC無權要求房東不得驅離未繳房租的房客，是目前為止對該救助方案最大的挑戰。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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