財經零距離 – 5/13/2022
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【市場更新】
1.本週股市持續下跌，新聞媒體在無法找到相關的新聞合理化股市下跌下，只能歸因於市場對Jerome Powell上週鴿派的發言沒有信心，依然懷疑聯準會會加速升息，而週三公布的消費者物價指數進一步加深了這個疑慮。週五市場則在快速下跌後由科技股領漲，在市場投資人極度恐慌下(CNN恐慌貪婪指數步入極度恐慌)，短期內不乏跌深反彈的機會。
- 通貨膨脹可能已過高峰，但市場依然擔心聯準會會加速升息: 週三公布的消費者物價指數較去年同期成長8.3%，因為比之前月份成長趨緩，可以認為通貨膨脹的高峰已過
(Source: Refinitiv Workspace)。但價格上漲也擴散到更多的服務類項目，而服務類項目的物價一旦上漲後較難調降，市場擔心聯準會藉機加速升息。 - 週三股債市場對物價指數的反應無法合理說明: 週三開盤時股票、債券市場並沒有對開盤前公布的物價指數有太大反應，但隨後股市及美國公債利率雙雙下滑(債券利率下跌時價格上漲)(Source: Refinitiv Workspace)。硬要解釋的話，只能說市場原本沒意識到，但忽然頓悟持續物價上漲將加速升息，並進一步造成經濟衰退，有利於債券未來表現。
- 未來18個月經濟衰退機率大增，債券仍然是經濟衰退情境下不可缺少的投資工具: 不論你相不相信週三市場下跌的解釋，在利差反轉信號以及聯準會及美國政府控制通膨的各項政策下，未來18個月經濟衰退機率大增。Jerome Powell也在週四警告控制通膨可能要付出代價，而且要控制經濟軟著陸需要許多聯準會無法控制的因素配合，可以看作是他已經在幫可能的經濟衰退打預防針。債券雖然今年前四個月表現糟糕(美國綜合債券ETF一到四月回報-9%，20年期以上美國公債ETF-19%)，但仍是經濟衰退時表現較為穩定的金融資產，仍是投資組合中不可缺少的一部分。
(Source: Refinitiv Workspace)。但價格上漲也擴散到更多的服務類項目，而服務類項目的物價一旦上漲後較難調降，市場擔心聯準會藉機加速升息。
(Source: Refinitiv Workspace)。硬要解釋的話，只能說市場原本沒意識到，但忽然頓悟持續物價上漲將加速升息，並進一步造成經濟衰退，有利於債券未來表現。2.根據Morgan Stanley估計之前投資迷因股(Meme Stocks)的投資人已完全獲利回吐。無獨有偶，虛擬貨幣市場也亂流不斷，比特幣一度跌至25,000，已回測2020年底價位。標榜以演算法鎖定一美元價值的穩定幣TerraUSD一度跌至11美分。虛擬貨幣交易所Coinbase警告”如果”Coinbase破產，投資人可能無法拿回所有的虛擬貨幣，但CEO強調即使黑天鵝事件發生，Coinbase也不會破產(信不信由你)。
- 不論大家對虛擬貨幣抱以多麼高的期待，目前虛擬貨幣表現與成長型科技股高度連動，沒有任何分散風險的效果。而抗通膨、避免政府干預也沒有看到實際的成果。我們依然維持一貫的建議: 對大部分人而言，即使不投資虛擬貨幣也能夠達到長期投資目標。如果不是很了解虛擬貨幣，可以投資不超過總資產1%的部分，也許未來會有數倍的獲利，即使損失影響也不大。
3.中國四月出口金額較前一年度成長3.9%，遠低於三月的14.7%，除了受到中國本身疫情管制措施影響外，因物價上漲導致全球消費者縮減支出也不無影響。
【疫情更新】
隨著疫情發展，中國上海、北京時而放寬、時而加強對疫情的管控措施。紐西蘭宣布將於7/31完全開放邊界。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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