財經零距離 – 5/14/2021
Betty Shih
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【市場更新】
1. 在通貨膨脹的陰影下，美股週一至週三連續三天下跌。
- 在股市高點時，投資人傾向獲利了結，而新聞習慣尋找任何看似相關的消息作為股市下跌的原因，而通貨膨脹風險提高，聯準會可能升息的消息在本次雀屏中選。事實上，對通貨膨脹的恐懼被過度放大(詳下文)，但在市場樂觀期待所有好消息都將發生時，任何不如投資人意的消息都可能引發市場下跌，甚至是先賣再找理由。
- 我們的看法是未來幾天市場會趨於穩定，科技股為主的納斯達克綜合指數有機會反彈，但如果反彈不能過前高有可能會帶來更大的跌幅。週四、週五的上漲主要是部分投資人相信跌深必定反彈，聯準會官員強調仍會支持市場的新聞雖然被作為合理解釋股市上漲的理由僅是次要因素。
2. 本週公布的四月消費者物價指數驟升，核心消費者物價指數較前月上漲0.9%，是1982年四月以來最高水準。但目前的物價上漲大部分是因為供應鍊短期受影響造成，許多問題在第三季可能就會解決，未必會造成長期通貨膨脹:
- 眾所皆知的晶片缺貨部分是因為在家工作期間對筆電、平版電腦的需求大增，在疫情逐漸平靜、更多人回辦公室工作的情況下(至少在有疫苗的國家)，此外即使仍然在家工作的人也不太可能每年更新電腦，所以這方面的需求不太容易維持之前的強勁需求。
- 中國在2020年及2021年初大量囤積包括晶片、各類金屬、原油在內的各類物資，但中國的庫存量有其極限而目前看來對大量物資的需求已開始趨緩。
- 至於因為房市火熱而價格飛漲的木材，目前的產能已回復至疫情前的水準，而且房屋銷售看來也來到了一個高點，木材價格應該會逐漸穩定。
- 受駭客影響的Colonial輸油管在週四恢復運作，在該輸油管停止運作的期間造成美國東岸及東南地區油價上漲、加油站大排長龍，預期國殤紀念日時油品短缺的情況就會解決。
(Source: The Daily Shot)
【疫情更新】
CDC核准輝瑞疫苗供12-15歲青少年使用，估計將進一步提升集體免疫的可能性。同時，CDC也宣布接種疫苗後民眾可以不用戴口罩及保持社交距離，預期對經濟活動開放有正面的影響。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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