財經零距離 – 5/19/2023
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【市場更新】
1. 由於缺乏其他重要的新聞，債務上限的談判在本週開始對股票市場產生影響。週四時白宮以及眾議院發言人Kevin McCarthy都對達成債務上限共識充滿信心，Kevin McCarthy甚至表示週末就會達成協議，下週將交付眾議院表決，激勵股市大幅上漲。但週五時，共和黨決定退出談判，市場開始自高點小幅下滑。
- 市場雙標: 其實股票市場一開始就沒有十分在意債務上限未達成協議、美國違約的可能性，那照道理週四看到達成協議的曙光也不應該對市場有太大的激勵作用。
- 市場的基本面並未好轉: 如果雙方真能就債務上限達成共識，很難想像共和黨會沒有附加任何撙節開支的條件，在2011年相同情況下導致風險性資產及收益率降低，至少不能說對市場是十分正面的發展。
- 標普500終於突破2/2高點，如果能站穩4180~4200以上區間，將是正面的信號，但市場目前看來十分鬆懈，要能維持目前的動能十分不易。
2. 原本市場預期月初的升息將是本次升息循環的最後一次升息，但週四數名聯準會官員的發言又讓事情複雜了起來。在Dallas的聯準會官員Lorie Logan及Cleveland的Loretta Mester發言表示還不能斷定確定停止升息後，原本期貨市場在一週前預期聯準會六月升息的機率僅為10%，但週四已提高至30%，週五到達40%。
- 聯準會可能升息的消息並未對股票市場的樂觀氣氛造成任何傷害。
- 即使六月可能升息，期貨市場依然預期今年下半年就會降息。
- 根據過去六次升息循環的紀錄，在最後一次升息後未來六個月的股市及債市都有不錯的報酬 – Wilshire 5000及美國10年期公債的總報酬分別是13%及11%，但之後股市都會有更大的跌幅，也就是重複我們之前一直強調的，聯準會開始降息從來就不是市場的低點。我們的建議依然是不要隨便殺進殺出，如果真的企圖要預測市場動向進出，不要錯將升息結束後的上漲視作長期牛市的開始，以免日後的市場下跌超過自己的風險承受能力。
美國泛宇集團有超過30年的財務規劃與管理經驗，專業的六大管理板塊，橫跨地產、貸款、保險、投資、稅務服務、教育, 旗下5000+名合作獨立經紀人遍布全美各州與亞洲主要城市，是全美最大亞裔一站式全方位財富管理服務的標竿品牌。歡迎與泛宇聯絡，讓專業的團隊為您出謀劃策。
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