財經零距離 – 5/5/2023
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【市場更新】
1. 聯準會週三宣布升息0.25%，是連續第十次升息，一舉將聯邦資金利率推升超過5%，是2007年以來最高水準。雖然聯準會主席Jerome Powell在之後的記者會並沒有鬆口今年會降息，但從聯準會發表的聲明字裡行間來看，未來升息的門檻極高，不出意外的話這將是本次升息循環的最後一次升息。
- 今年降息機率高: 依據過去的經驗，每次聯準會在暫停升息時依然會作出鷹派的發言，避免市場預期聯準會一定會降息，但升息循環結束後必定伴隨著降息循環。所以雖然股票市場對Jerome Powell未承諾降息十分失望，但期貨市場其實已經預期今年會降息三碼0.75%。
- 強勁的就業報告是不確定因素: 但週五公布的四月就業報告帳面上看來十分強勁，特別是失業率又降至3.4%，雖然就業報告是落後指標，但依然有可能給聯準會充足的理由，在暫緩升息後多觀察一段時間才進行政策的調整。
2. 關於最近一連串的銀行問題，Jerome Powell在週三提到銀行體系十分強健，有分析師半開玩笑地表示部分股價大的區域型銀行恐怕不會同意這句話。
- 部分危機解除不代表所有銀行都安然無恙: 我們也完全相信美國的整體銀行體系及存保系統的安全，但正如JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon在收購First Republic Bank後說的「這一部分危機已經解除」，部分少數的區域性銀行還是有可能面臨被存保接管的風險，而且隨著未來經濟衰退對資產品質的影響，風險不會立即消除。
- 今年至今存戶權益都未受影響，但不能高枕無憂: 今年三次或併購或存保吸收都沒有讓存戶超過存保上限的金額受到損失，但這並不是常態，所以我們還是提醒觀眾朋友不用恐慌，但不管在存款還是投資上都應該適度地分散風險。
- 投資人如果以$1買進最高股價$10的股票，在股票下市時損失依然是100%: First Republic Bank的股價2021/11最高超過$220，即使一年前也有$150的水準。當First Republic Bank $7時進場到底會損失多少呢？它跌到$3時再進場會不會少賠一點？結論是不管怎樣投資人都會損失100%，因為該公司已經不存在了。過去的股價對未來可能、但未必有參考價值。投資整體市場、產業都是降低風險的好方法。
美國泛宇集團有超過30年的財務規劃與管理經驗，專業的六大管理板塊，橫跨地產、貸款、保險、投資、稅務服務、教育, 旗下5000+名合作獨立經紀人遍布全美各州與亞洲主要城市，是全美最大亞裔一站式全方位財富管理服務的標竿品牌。歡迎與泛宇聯絡，讓專業的團隊為您出謀劃策。
今天就請聯繫泛宇當地經紀人 或電 888-831-8868
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