財經零距離 – 6/10/2022
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【市場更新】
1.從5/27以來，標普500持續在4075到4175，這100點的區間內來回振盪，但是市場因為對CPI消費者物價指數的預期恐懼心理以及實際上創新高而大跌。
2.週五公布的消費者物價指數(CPI)較去年同期增加8.6%，再創新高同時也高於市場預期。市場已經預期聯準會未來三次會議都會升息0.5%。而利率倒掛或利差反轉，也就是美國短期公債利率反而高於長期利率可能再度發生，進一步引發經濟衰退的疑慮。但事實上經濟衰退就像人會生病一樣，在正常循環中總會碰到，新聞媒體總是會強調負面的消息，但往往忽略了負面消息可能在其他方面帶來的正面影響。例如經濟衰退極有可能導致物價下跌，亦即停滯性通貨膨脹(物價上漲但同時經濟衰退、失業人口增加)發生的機率可能沒有大家想像的那麼高。
3.美國的零售業龍頭Target本週宣布將加速降價出清存貨，將大幅降低公司的獲利，是三週內第二次調降公司獲利展望。
- 存貨過多主要是因為消費習慣改變，而零售業之前為因應供應鍊不穩定而準備大量存貨: 消費者在過去兩年的疫情期間已大量添購家電、3C產品，而這些產品消費者不可能經常購買(沒有人會每年買電視機)。另一方面美國民眾受物價上漲影響，將優先支出於民生必需品。而疫情解封也讓民眾轉移支出於服務業。在疫情期間為避免缺貨而準備的眾多存貨反倒成為燙手山芋。
- 雖然對Target本身甚至零售業整體都不是好消息，但零售業降價出清存貨有助於抑制物價上漲，事實上五月的CPI已經出現家具及家電用品價格下跌的趨勢。
- 另外，美國零售業存貨過高，顯示未來由包括中國在內的其他國家進口增加的幅度縮小，對美國第二季的經濟成長有加分作用。
4.美國財政部將禁止美國投資人在二級市場購買俄羅斯公債以及公司債，之前財政部已禁止投資人認購新發行的俄羅斯債券。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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