財經零距離 – 6/17/2022
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【市場更新】
1.週三聯準會宣布升息0.75%，是1994年以來最大的單次升息幅度，但因為市場已經有心理準備，而且Jerome Powell在之後的記者會表現的態度是0.75%不是常態，所以市場上漲，但週四旋即獲利回吐。週五則是漲跌互見，標普500、納斯達克綜合指數上漲，但道瓊工業指數仍在30000點以下。在Youtube Channel股動財富當天的節目中，我們曾提醒大家，之前也發生過升息隔天市場下跌，新聞媒體找的理由是市場終於明白聯準會的意圖而轉趨悲觀，所以不要用單純一天的反應來預測市場的方向，需要多觀察幾天。
2.除了升息之外，另外一個值得觀察的重點是聯準會對未來的預測，聯準會調降了今年及明年的經濟成長、同時上調了失業率。聯準會對未來的經濟預測很少準確，所以他估計的經濟成長及失業率最終數字不是重點。但聯準會預期失業率的上升幅度在過去都是經濟衰退時才會出現的狀況。所以雖然聯準會本身並沒有預期經濟衰退即將發生，但實際上聯準會的企圖就是利用升息降低整體經濟的需求來控制通膨，理想上是軟著陸，但歷史上聯準會極少成功，通常經濟衰退無法避免。
- 週三公布的五月美國零售數據較四月下跌0.3%，是2022年以來首次下跌，顯示物價、油價上漲已經對民眾的購買力造成影響，特別是在汽車、高價商品方面下挫更為明顯，顯示經濟正逐漸失去動能。
- 在經濟衰退不知何時發生的情況下，我們建議採取防禦型的投資方式，不要過度投資在景氣循環股或是基本面欠佳的高成長股，也不要太積極地逢低買進搶反彈。
- 根據Financial Times的統計，仍有70%的經濟學家認為2023年之後才會發生經濟衰退。當有一天，所有的人都告訴你我們正處於經濟衰退，而且多頭都已被迫離場時，就是我們轉趨十分積極的時機。
3.虛擬貨幣隨著股市下跌，創下2010年以來最長的連續下跌紀錄，更多相關企業傳出負面消息。虛擬貨幣借貸平台Celsius宣布暫停存戶提領虛擬貨幣。另一借貸平台BlockFi宣布裁員20%，虛擬貨幣交易所Coinbase將裁員18%。之前許多推廣虛擬貨幣的知名人士在Bitcoin暴跌70%後紛紛噤聲。
- 應該大家都知道學打籃球要找LeBron James、學演戲找Matt Damon(至少不是找投資經理人)，但在投資上卻能接受非投資專業的名人給予投資建議。在各個專業都講究科學訓練的現代，「高手在民間」的想法經不起實際檢驗。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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