財經零距離 – 6/18/2021
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【市場更新】
1. 聯準會在週三公布的資訊顯示聯準會有可能比原定預期更快的升息，造成股票市場下跌，美元上漲，大宗商品以及黃金下跌。
- 自2012年以來，聯邦公開市場委員會在會議結束後會公布18名委員對未來聯邦資金利率的預期，市場稱為dot plot。本次的dot plot顯示2023年預期的中位數聯邦資金利率由0%上升至0.6%，並有更多人預期2022年就會升息。在市場已很難預期更多基本面的正面消息能帶動股價的情形下，聯準會升息對市場的信心可能產生影響。(image 1; Source: The Daily Shot)
- 單純由dot plot的角度分析，現在到2023年還有很長一段時間，諸多的發展可能會影響聯準會的最終決定。此外，由過去的紀錄來看，dot plot沒有任何預測價值(也就是從來沒有準過)。簡單來說，無法由dot plot本身斷定聯準會即將升息。
- 至於升息對市場的信心影響，由週三之後幾天的交易情況來看對整體市場的影響有限，標普500在一開始比較大幅度的下跌後都能恢復大部分的跌幅，而以科技股為主的納斯達克綜合指數表現超越標普500及道瓊工業指數，可見許多資金轉移至高成長甚至是投機型股票，但顯然大家都忘記二月時新聞媒體如何拚命解釋為何升息對科技股不利。
- 我們依然認為目前的股市漲勢脫離基本面，但歷史經驗告訴我們股市可以長期脫離基本面，而且沒有人能準確判斷何時會反轉，長期持有但避開高投機的股票依然是最好的建議。
- 其他金融資產方面，美元在升息及市場較多震盪的條件下上升，我們持續看好美元未來一年的走勢。而黃金雖然受升息消息影響快速下跌，但在中長期上升趨勢下，短期內將是個不錯的進場時機。至於大宗商品在之前過度炒作下有些過熱，在快速下跌後應該會有反彈，但潛在回報相較起風險不是那麼吸引人，此外中國出手限制大宗商品炒作也可能會影響其表現(請見下文)。
2. 在聯準會公布可能未來加快升息腳步之前，中國政府宣布限制國營企業對海外大宗商品市場的投資，此外政府將釋出鋅、銅、鋁至市場。兩則新聞顯示中國將出手限制大宗商品的炒作行為，新聞公布後立即對倫敦以及上海交易所的金屬價格產生影響。
- 大宗商品的漲勢有一部分來自中國政府之前大量的囤積物資，之前我們在財經零距離中即談到中國的囤積行為看來已趨緩，對未來的大宗商品需求也有相當影響。
【疫情更新】
美國加州及紐約州幾近解除全有的群聚規定。但受疫情升溫影響，英國將延至七月開放全部經濟活動。
【救市措施】
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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