財經零距離 – 6/25/2021
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【市場更新】
1. 標普500及納斯達克綜合指數本週再創新高，我們上週提到，許多投資人的信心並未因聯準會放出升息風聲受影響，資金依然投入高成長甚至是投機型股票，在短期內我們仍然維持此看法。
2. 本週公布的房價資訊再創新高: 成屋銷售價格中位數首次超過$350,000，較去年同期上漲24%也創下自該統計數據出現以來最大的年度漲幅，但高價格同時也導致成交量減少。之後公布的新屋銷售也遵循此模式。(Source: Ycharts)
- 高房價可能導致需求進一步減少，目前房價(依成屋銷售平均價格計算)週薪比創2000年中後期房價泡沫後新高，約需400週的工資(接近8年)才能買房。雖然低房貸利率壓低整體供房的成本，但高價仍對未來的房屋需求有一定影響。(Source: Rosenberg Research)
- 同時房屋市場的存貨在疫情逐漸改善下開始回溫，新屋存貨已經由去年10月的3.5個月上升至5.1個月，創12個月新高。(Source: Rosenberg Research)
- 依各種資訊來看，目前房市可能已經過熱，未來房市如果降溫除了對房地產價格有所影響外，也會對整體市場、特別是投資人信心有所影響，目前看來大部分的股市投資人並沒有合理預期房市降溫的風險。
3. 拜登總統與部分參議員就基礎建設法案達成共識，金額縮減至$1兆美元，且大部分的資金將來自之前紓困方案中未使用的款項。雖然尚不確定是否能經國會通過，但部分工業股重新開始上漲。
【疫情更新】
雖然包括美國在內許多國家已逐步放鬆管制，但疫情並未完全成為過去式。Delta變種病毒仍是變數(專家警告七月中時美國半數的新增確診病例將是Delta變種造成)，而許多國家(特別是新興國家)施打疫苗比率仍低，或是像中國雖然已大量施打疫苗但仍決定未來一年將持續出入境管制，疫情在中短期仍對經濟有一定程度影響。
【救市措施】
CDC延長禁止驅趕房客的措施至七月底。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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