財經零距離 – 6/3/2022
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【市場更新】
1.本週市場震盪起伏，週二、週三下跌後(週一休市)週四股市大漲，創下本波反彈新高，但週五再度下跌，本週最後以小跌作收。維持之前看法，只要這波反彈之後的回測沒有跌破五月的低點，預期將有可操作的中期反彈。
- 企業動作及高管發言受矚目: JP Morgan的CEO Jamie Dimon在週三時警告俄烏衝突、物價上漲以及聯準會升息將造成經濟上的「颶風」，雖然不知道規模是大是小，但建議先作好準備。週五時Tesla CEO Elon Musk宣布他直覺看壞全球經濟、該公司將裁員10%。而之前在市場上瘋狂搶人的虛擬貨幣相關企業也宣布凍結人事，虛擬貨幣交易所Coinbase宣布將持續「無限期」凍結人事，包括取消原本已承諾的錄取通知。另一家交易所Gemini也宣布將裁員10%。
- 經濟衰退可能無法避免，但應健康看待: 從諸多數據分析來看，不論認為是今年下半年或2023，經濟衰退恐怕無法避免，但1980年以來美國/全球已經歷六次經濟衰退，每次衰退後人均所得及標普500都再創新高，與其把經濟衰退視為世界末日、過度恐慌，不如把它看作是無法避免、調養生息後還是會恢復正常生活的疾病比較合理。
- 經濟衰退從來沒有發生過大家都知道會經濟衰退的時刻，當大家都憂慮經濟衰退時，經濟衰退或是延遲發生，或是影響有限: 在大家都認為會經濟衰退的情況下，有一種看法是因為大家都看壞，公司先開始裁員，民眾也會撙節開支，本來未必會經濟衰退，在自我實現下反而出現了經濟衰退。但我們認為更有可能經濟衰退在大家都有準備下延遲發生(在認為經濟衰退是循環自然的一部分下，不能說不會發生，只能說不會在大家預期的時間發生)，或者是衰退的影響有限。
- 有備無患是好事，但不應「過度」準備不知何時發生的狀況: 有一個笑話是有人看到今年的股市下跌，很得意的發文說他從2009年一路看空到現在果然市場如他所料的下跌了。事實上股市就算下跌後還是比2009年高，所以這個預測沒有任何意義。「壞掉的時鐘一天會準兩次」，投資人的道要是選擇適合自己風險承受能力的投資組合長期持有，不要去企圖預測何時會經濟衰退、並以此作為進出場的依據。
2.五月就業報告超出市場預期，新增390,000工作，失業率維持在3.6%。
- 因為就業是落後指標，我們不會驟然將理想的就業報告視作經濟前景一片大好的依據，但也沒有理由因此而認為經濟必然由盛轉衰。
【疫情更新】
中國北京、上海疫情受控制下逐步解封。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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