財經零距離 – 6/4/2021
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【市場更新】
1. 市場本週變化不大，我們維持前一週的看法，持續觀察反彈是否能持續創歷史新高，或是失敗的反彈向下探底。以目前情況來看，短期內向下跌破五月中低點的機率較持續創歷史新高的機率為高。
2. 廣受散戶青睞的高放空股票再度成為話題焦點，這次主角從GameStop變成AMC電影院，AMC股價今年至今最高累計上漲2,800%，週三當天就上漲95%、接近翻倍。
- 1/29財經零距離的文章對GameStop的分析絕大部分可以繼續套用在AMC上，在此就不贅述。從基本面來看，相信沒有人會懷疑AMC的營運模式近年來受到許多串流服務的挑戰(Netflix, Disney +, HBO Max…)。即使相信在疫情解封後，在家被悶壞的民眾會一窩蜂衝進電影院看電影，現在AMC的市值超過$300億，是今年之前最高市值(發生在2017年)$40億的7倍，簡單來說，即使對AMC的基本面有如何樂觀的估計也很難支持目前AMC股價的飆漲。
- GameStop的前車之鑑: GameStop之前從最高點$483一路跌至$40，雖然現在又超過$250，但距離原本Reddit喊出的$1,000還是有相當差距，如果在看了新聞報導接到最後一棒的GameStop，即使最後真能如願漲到$1,000，但如果投資太大金額，看著自己財富坐雲霄飛車上上下下還是很煎熬的。
3. 聯準會過去一年多持續為市場挹注資金是持續推動整體市場及像AMC、GameStop的主要力量，究竟何時聯準會會緊縮資金呢?沒有人知道，但聯準會在週三宣布將會賣出去年疫情期間為支持債券市場買進的公司債及相關ETF，觸動市場敏感的神經。
- 買進公司債原本就不是聯準會市場操作的一環，完全是因為疫情導致聯準會認為自己必需作為資本市場的最後一道防線以維持市場流動性。在市場已經穩定的現在結束這個計畫其實合理也應該正面看待。
- 但市場不免聯想到如果聯準會進一步緊縮整體(特別是公債)市場的資金以升息，將會對整體經濟產生重大的影響，有研究指出聯準會升息後經濟衰退的機率高達80%。而目前脫離基本面的股票市場在沒有熱錢支撐下也不可能維持如此的熱度。
- 總結來說: 1)聯準會目前出售公司債不代表聯準會有立即升息的意圖; 2)一旦聯準會升息，全球經濟有很高機率重回經濟衰退; 3)即使聯準會未實際升息，在市場脫離基本面的情況下，只要市場懷疑將會升息就足以引發市場下跌;4)投資多檔股票並不足以分散風險(即使標普500也在2007~2009年下跌超過50%)，想要控制風險一定需要適當的資產配置。
【疫情更新】
拜登總統宣布為達到在7/4前70%美國成年人施打疫苗的目標，將展開為期一個月的宣傳活動，包括與Anheuser-Busch合作提供免費啤酒以鼓勵民眾施打疫苗。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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