財經零距離 – 7/1/2022
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【市場更新】
1.本週標普500前四天連續下跌，但週五股市上揚開始新的一季。全球是否將步入經濟衰退依然是關注焦點。聯準會主席Jerome Powell在歐洲央行年度經濟政策會議上表示，相較於高利率引發經濟衰退，他更擔心無法控制物價造成的高通膨風險。
- 這句話很明顯地強調了聯準會目前的首要工作就是控制通貨膨脹，只有在物價受到控制之後(而且是已經反應在數據上後)，聯準會才會考慮寬鬆貨幣政策以振興經濟，目前階段壞消息就是壞消息，激發聯準會救市的機率極低。
- 同樣是負面的經濟數據，上週五的消費者情緒指數創歷史新低而當天收漲，週二公布的消費者信心指數創16月來新低而當天下跌。還認為經濟數據的「壞消息就是好消息」的讀者應該要停止相信這個沒有事實根據的說法。
- 投資人的首要是選擇適合自己風險承受能力的投資組合長期持有，不要去企圖預測何時會經濟衰退、並以此作為進出場的依據。
2.在美國公布第一季的最終經濟成長率中，最引人關注的是經濟成長的主要組成項目民間消費最終數字僅成長0.5%，低於原始估計的0.8%及上一季度的0.6%。其中服務類別支出成長較原始估計溫和，而商品消費數據衰退。
- 全球經濟衰退依然是未來最有可能發生的情境，我們希望僅是軟著陸，但並不特別樂觀。
3.美國證監局未核准Grayscale將其信託公司轉換為ETF的申請，虛擬貨幣價格再度下滑。同時有越來越多新聞媒體開始檢討Celcius(之前暫停存戶提領資金)這類的虛貨幣借貸平台風險過高。
- 這一類借貸平台的經營模式是以高利吸引存戶，再將吸收到的虛擬貨幣借給其他虛擬貨幣專案，賺取的利潤在支付承諾給存戶的利息後即成為借貸平台的利潤。類似銀行的經營模式，但是因為虛擬貨幣火熱時各種投資專案獲利容易，可說是三贏的局面。
- 但這一類的借款通常是以虛擬貨幣為擔保品，若虛擬貨幣價格下跌且借款人無力補提擔保品時，借貸平台將承受損失。而這類借貸平台因無法令規範、習慣高槓桿運作，當存戶企圖提領資金而借貸平台沒有充足資金時，就只能像Celcius一樣宣布凍結提領。
- 與傳統銀行不同，虛擬貨幣借貸平台沒有存款保險保護，也無法向央行融通資金。除非有人願意接手，否則存戶存放的資金受損機率極大。
- 目前看來，這類借貸平台交易對象多僅限於虛擬貨幣環境中，即使日後產生骨牌效應，對整體主流金融市場影響尚屬有限。但虛擬貨幣價格持續下跌會造成負面的財富效果，也就是因為資產縮水導致民眾不願意消費，可以說是在對物價、油價上漲及房貸利息上升以外對民間消費的另一重打擊。
4.俄羅斯外債技術性違約(俄羅斯有資金、有意願儐債，但受限於經濟制裁無法撥款)，事態發展至今仍在市場預期範圍內，並未對市場產生太多影響。
【疫情更新】
中國縮短旅行人士的隔離期間，市場期待中國疫情緩解有助於舒緩全球供應鍊的緊張情況。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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