財經零距離 – 7/15/2022
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【市場更新】
1.週三公布的六月份消費者物價指數較去年同期上升9.1%，再次創下近四十年來最高的紀錄。而且因為上漲幅度超過市場預期，引發市場擔心聯準會會再增強升息力道，引發股市下跌。市場已預期聯準會在7/27將升息1%，而非原本的0.75%。
- 之前因為聯準會升息導致美元創新高，以及大宗商品價格下滑，這些在未來可能會對物價產生一定的抑制作用。另外依據過去經驗，通貨膨脹平均是在經濟衰退六個月後才到頂峰，所以我們仍然認為今年下半年，經濟衰退的威脅將超過通貨膨脹。
2.週五公布的零售數據優於預期帶動股市上漲，不確定投資人是否還記得之前「壞消息就是好消息」的說法。
3.本週企業陸續公布上一季獲利狀況，JP Morgan Chase大幅提列備抵呆帳以面對經濟衰退帶來的影響。至少對該公司而言，華爾街分析師的獲利預估並未將經濟衰退考量在內。銀行備抵呆帳受主觀判斷影響極大，未必具備代表性。其他企業獲利預期是否也過度樂觀值得關注。
4.中國公布上一季GDP較去年同期僅成長0.4%，遠低於分析師預期。中國經濟成長趨緩除了受到全球經濟開始降溫影響外，也與自身防疫清零限制有關。中國經濟成長不理想，對其他國家影響有限(中國雖然是出口導向國家，但仍然有龐大的消費人口，除非有國家完全不出口至中國，不然不可能完全不受影響)，對全球經濟最大的影響仍然在於是否因防疫政策導致供應鍊受影響。
5.俄羅斯與歐洲的天然氣輸氣管北溪一號按原定維護時程暫時關閉，但是否依原定時程在維護完成後重新開放充滿不確定因素。
- 歐洲經濟在俄烏衝突下首當其衝，連帶帶動歐洲股市以及歐元下跌，歐元與美元的匯率在本週已達到一比一。俄羅斯如果切斷對歐洲的能源輸出將進一步影響歐洲甚至是全球經濟。
【疫情更新】
新一波疫情在各地擴散，日本、南韓、紐西蘭皆鼓勵民眾採取預防措施。日本新增確診人數達95,000人，是今年新高。為控制疫情，澳門賭場暫時停業。洛杉磯郡提高疫情警戒程度，情況若不改善，兩週後可能恢復室內需戴口罩的規定。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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