財經零距離 – 7/2/2021
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【市場更新】
1. 雖然Delta變種病毒在世界各地造成不同影響，但美國投資人顯然並不在意(亞洲市場就是另一番情景)，在市場無其他重大新聞情況下，標普500及納斯達克綜合指數迭創新高，散戶的信心及持續投入市場功不可沒。
2. 散戶自疫情以來積極參與市場主要受三個因素影響: 1)股票交易零手續費; 2)疫情封鎖期間缺乏娛樂活動; 3)政府紓困支票。我們重新來檢視這三個因素並探討這些因素是否會長期影響散戶參與市場:
- 零手續費將持續鼓勵散戶殺進殺出: 雖然2013年Robinhood就喊出股票交易零手續費，但2019年在幾家大券商帶動下，零手續費幾成為業界常態，也將持續激勵散戶短期進出股市。但投資人只看到零手續費的小利，卻往往忽略了短期資本利得稅最高超過40%。如果沒注意到沖洗交易(wash sale)的限制，30天內買進賣出的損失不得扣抵，但獲利仍要繳稅。
- 經濟活動持續開放下，投資不再是唯一的「娛樂」: 投資不該是娛樂，但在疫情期間賭場、運動博彩關門的情況下，投資成為了許多人打發時間的重要消遣。關鍵字”buy stocks”在2020年3月及2021年1月兩次創下高峰( Google Trends)
，而許多散戶依賴社群媒體取得訊息，也讓Reddit下的Wall Street Bets論壇訂戶直線上升。(Source: Rosenberg Research)。但在越來越多民眾施打疫苗，經濟活動開放下(特別是賭場)，有更多的娛樂可以選擇，網友在Wall Street Bets的評論也逐漸減少。(Source: Rosenberg Research) - 如無意外，不能再期待政府紓困支票將被用來投入市場。
- 除零手續費外，其他兩個因素未來對散戶投入市場的影響極小，但可預期散戶仍將在市場扮演舉足輕重的地位，直到市場大幅修正讓投資人喪失信心為止。對投資人而言，除了建議不要過度投資在社群媒體被吹捧的投機股、短期進出外，如果真的要短期進出，也應該要考量稅的影響，優先考慮以退休帳戶(IRA, 401K)進行短期交易。
，而許多散戶依賴社群媒體取得訊息，也讓Reddit下的Wall Street Bets論壇訂戶直線上升。(Source: Rosenberg Research)
。但在越來越多民眾施打疫苗，經濟活動開放下(特別是賭場)，有更多的娛樂可以選擇，網友在Wall Street Bets的評論也逐漸減少。(Source: Rosenberg Research)
【疫情更新】
受Delta變種病毒影響，澳洲宣布部分區域重新封鎖，影響約半數人口。
【救市措施】
美國最高法院拒絕同意終止暫緩驅逐未繳房租房客的行政命令，該行政命令將持續生效至七月底。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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