財經零距離 – 7/22/2022
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【市場更新】
1.受惠於企業公布上季獲利優於預期，市場本週上漲，而週五的下跌可以視為是連續三天上漲後的拉回。值得注意的是許多空單餘額高的股票近來表現優異，顯示本波上漲部分也受益於空單回補，屬於熊市中常見的狀況。市場是否已實際落底反彈尚需要更多訊息佐證。
2.另一方面機構投資人於股市的資產配置比例創下2008年10月以來的新低，這是一個值得關注的正向發展，長期來看機構投資人有望逐漸提高股市的投資比例。但前波新低2008年10月之後的五個月，2009年3月標普500才從谷底反彈，這也是為什麼我們強調需要更多數據才能確定市場已經落底。
3.部分新聞加深經濟衰退的疑慮:
- 蘋果電腦宣布減緩徵才及資本支出計畫，顯示即使是科技龍頭也擔心可能的經濟衰退風險。
- 社群媒體公司Snap公布損失擴大並且宣稱前景充滿不確定性，無法提供未來營運展望。
- AT&T的顧客較去年相較平均延遲兩天付清電話及網路帳單。
4.美國油價過去一個月下跌超過10%，並可能隨著原油價格持續下跌。對大眾擔心的通貨膨脹有緩解作用。
(Source: The New York Times)
5.歐洲央行決定升息0.5%，是近11年來的首次升息。升息主要的目的自然是為了控制通膨，但歐洲因俄烏衝突影響，因能源問題引發經濟衰退風險極高(請見下文)，快速升息極可能加速歐洲步入經濟衰退。歐洲上月的採購經理人指數已創下2021年二月以來新低，並跌破50、進入收縮階段。另一方面，部分分析師擔心歐洲央行之前信誓旦旦將升息0.25%，升息力道大於預期有損歐洲央行的可信度，影響市場的信心。
- 歐洲升息有助於穩定歐元走勢，之前因率先升息、一枝獨秀的美元走勢可能將趨緩，之前因為強勢美元而表現不佳的大宗商品及貴金屬未來有機會回穩。
6.俄羅斯恢復連結俄歐的北溪一號天然氣管線，但並未完全恢復最大供氣量，並警告歐洲如果提出其他的制裁方案，俄國有可能切斷供氣。歐盟提議各會員國在未來八個月內減少15%的天然氣消費以為因應。
【疫情更新】
中國新增確診人數創兩個月新高。洛杉磯郡已要求在機場及大眾運輸系統需戴口罩，並警告除非確診數快速下降，預期將於下週恢復室內需戴口罩的要求。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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