財經零距離 – 7/29/2022
admin
SHARE
【市場更新】
1.本週最重要的兩個事件，一個是聯準會宣布升息0.75%，另一個是美國連續兩季GDP負成長，符合技術上經濟衰退的定義(官方經濟衰退只能由美國經濟研究局(NBER)宣布)。市場對這兩個事件都是正面的反應，但我們進一步來分析這兩個消息的長遠影響。
- 聯準會升息整體在市場預期之內，影響有限: 因為升息0.75%本身就在市場預期之中，而聯準會主席Jerome Powell表明未來可能不會如此快速升息，對市場有一定激勵作用。至於Jerome Powell提到將不再提供對未來升息的指引，因為聯準會在六月的時候出爾反爾(本來說三碼不在考慮範圍內，但最後升了三碼)，本來市場就對聯準會提供的指引信心大打折扣，此聲明對市場的影響有限。
- 技術上的經濟衰退過去都成為官方經濟衰退: 就在Jerome Powell週三依然強調比起經濟衰退，他更擔心通貨膨脹的問題，但週四公布的GDP連續兩季負成長，已經符合技術上經濟衰退的定義。相信未來幾天許多分析師會爭論經濟數據顯示應該沒有經濟衰退，並且提出經濟衰退必需由NBER討論後宣布，但關鍵在於歷史上從沒發生過技術上經濟衰退，但NBER事後不認為經濟衰退發生的前例，再加上之前的利率倒掛、通貨膨脹以及失業率的信號，美國/全球在2022進入經濟衰退應該是難以避免。而自1980年以來，NBER平均是在經濟衰退後七個月才會官方宣布，通常宣布時已接近、甚至走出市場低點。
- 在長期投資的大前提下，短期把握反彈機會，中期保守觀望: 最近一段時間股市上漲，特別是之前跌深的科技股、高成長股反彈特別強勁，之前手頭上的虧損部位狀況應該有所改善。但依過去經驗來看，很難判斷股市是否已過谷底(除了2020年因疫情造成的經濟衰退，股市迅速觸底反彈外，通常現階段股市尚未觸底，但凡事皆有例外)，立即能再創新高。投資人最好是利用目前反彈的機會減少損失，但在反彈結束之前逐漸調整至防禦型的部位、觀察未來的方向伺機而動。
2.本週各企業公布的上季營運結果是「半杯水」的最佳詮釋，樂觀的人看到許多指標公司(特別是科技業)獲利超過預期，悲觀的人認為是分析師下修預期的結果。大體而言，最後幾天市場對幾家龍頭股營運結果的正面解讀帶動了市場上漲，幾家值得關注的企業:
- 零售業龍頭Walmart調降今年的獲利展望，連帶引發市場對零售業的疑慮。
- Facebook的母公司Meta宣布有史以來首次的單季收入衰退。
- Apple雖然獲利衰退，但超過分析師預期。
- Amazon連續兩季淨損，並且創下二十年來最低的營收成長，但上季獲利及營收超過分析師預期。
【疫情更新】
洛杉磯郡暫緩實施室內戴口罩的規定。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
Disclosure TransGlobal Advisory, LLC is a Registered Investment Adviser. This platform is solely for informational purposes. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where TransGlobal Advisory, LLC and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. No advice may be rendered by TransGlobal Advisory, LLC unless a client service agreement is in place. “Likes” are not intended to be endorsements of our firm, our advisors or our services. Please be aware that while we monitor comments and “likes” left on this page, we do not endorse or necessarily share the same opinions expressed by site users. While we appreciate your comments and feedback please be aware that any form of testimony from current or past clients about their experience with our firm is strictly forbidden under current securities laws. Please honor our request to limit your posts to industry-related educational information and comments. Third-party rankings and recognitions are no guarantee of future investment success and do not ensure that a client or prospective client will experience a higher level of performance or results. These ratings should not be construed as an endorsement of the advisor by any client nor are they representative of any one client’s evaluation. TransGlobal Advisory, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. TransGlobal Advisory, LLC may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions.
