財經零距離 – 7/8/2022
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【市場更新】
1.聯準會的聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)公布上個月的會議紀錄，紀錄除重申為控制物價恐將引發經濟衰退外無額外訊息，但市場當日小幅上漲，新聞媒體解讀市場觀察到原油價格已經因為對經濟衰退的疑慮開始下跌，預期聯準會將且戰且走，只要物價受控制將放緩升息腳步。
- 聯準會何時改弦更張充滿不確定性: 經濟衰退將引發物價下跌、聯準會在物價受控制下將暫緩升息都是我們認同的看法，唯一要提出來的一點還是:聯準會不會預期物價受控制就收手，而是要等到低物價實際反映在經濟數據上才會改變行為，這就增添了很多不確定因素。
- 下週開始企業將公布第二季財報，實際與預期的落差將對股市產生影響: 目前華爾街分析師僅是稍微調降各企業的獲利數字，獲利數字並未反映對經濟衰退的預期。如果實際獲利數字達標甚至優於預期，對市場將有進一步的激勵作用; 相反的，如果獲利明顯不如預期，可能也會對本波反彈產生衝擊。
- 股市有望迎來較穩定的反彈: 市場目前接近這一波的谷底(有人認為已經是谷底，但不排除在往下一波的可能)，之後將有機會迎來較穩定、比較容易操作的反彈，之前被股價下跌嚇到不敢面對自己投資組合的投資人應該趁此機會進行調整。
2.週四公布的上週首次申請失業人數創六個月新高，但週五公布的六月就業報告優於預期。如果經濟數據之間不一致已經讓你一頭霧水的話，新聞媒體的解讀大概會更讓你不知所措。有人認為就業報告強會鼓勵聯準會維持快速升息政策不利於市場發展。有人認為優於預期的就業報告代表全球經濟沒有步入衰退的危險。
- 就業報告是落後指標，無法用於預測股市(領先指標)。但首次申請失業人數是否持續增加值得關注。
3.德國自1991年以來首次創下貿易逆差。德國的貿易逆差可以說在俄烏衝突導致能源價格飆升下的異常狀況，但不論如何，這顯示了歐洲以及全球的經濟都受到了極大考驗。歐洲經濟前景不樂觀也讓歐元創下近二十年來的新低，與美元已經接近一比一。
4.美國10年期及2年期公債再次發生倒掛/利差反轉。
(Source: Daily Shot)在4/1利差首次反轉後，第二次反轉並不帶有太多的預測價值，但大家可以回想一下在三月底、四月初我們提醒利差反轉都會伴隨經濟衰退時，新聞媒體還沒有大幅報導。而三個月後的現在，包括聯準會在內都認為經濟衰退極有可能發生。雖然歷史不會重複發生，但過去的數據依然有相當的參考價值，更重要的不是受自己情緒干擾，選擇性地接受訊息。
【疫情更新】
全球新增確診人數上升，中國部分城市為因應新一波疫情採取較嚴格的管控措施。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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