財經零距離 – 7/9/2021
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【市場更新】
- 標普500及納斯達克綜合指數在週三創新高後，週四市場下跌，新聞媒體立刻將矛頭指向投資人擔心疫情會影響經濟復甦速度，其中包括WHO警告各國不要過早解封。Delta變種的威脅並不算是新聞，但決定市場反應的是市場如何解讀新聞，而非新聞本身，否則週五股市上漲再創新高，難道Delta變種週五就不再是威脅?我們依然認為全球市場長期脫離基本面，市場短期內可能進入盤整或拉回，但是否馬上會大跌仍需觀察。
- 除了目前的疫情外，另一個市場尚未考慮，但有可能會產生重大影響的是七月底即將到期的債務上限凍結，過去兩年在債務上限凍結下，政府得以無視債務上限無限制地借款，債務上限凍結到期後，總統及國會必需討論通過提高債務上限或是再度凍結債務上限。
- 債務上限通常會在國會考量現實狀況下予以提高，但在2011年歐巴馬總統及茶黨對立下，債務上限被當作極佳的談判工具，共和黨得以以此要求民主黨降低債務、減少支出。在目前兩黨對立及2022期中選舉即將到來的情況下，不排除重演類似的戲碼。
- 雖然2011年的兩黨對立並沒有造成經濟衰退，但2011年七月開始的紛爭再加上八、九月歐洲的經濟狀況不佳導致標普500從2011年7月的高點下跌15%。因此，雖然兩黨最後應該還是能就債務上限達成共識，但市場短期震盪的機率大增。
- 在週四市場因疫情下跌之前，滴滴出行在美國上市後遭中國政府要求下架是最熱門的新聞。單從投資整體角度來看，這則新聞再次顯示資產配置、分散風險的重要，任何單一公司、國家、金融資產都有可能因為突發事件而遭受重大損失，”分散風險是投資市場唯一的免費午餐”。
- 聯準會公布的上月會議記錄顯示，在經濟復甦較預計強勁下，聯準會可能會加快縮緊銀根的腳步，但時間及明確條件皆不確定，市場無太大反應，一來是因為可能加息已非新聞，另外疫情的變化也讓之前認為強勁的經濟復甦蒙上一層陰影。
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