財經零距離 – 8/06/2021
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【市場更新】
1. 最近免手續費的券商Robinhood首次公開募股，也就是所謂的IPO，股價上市當天下跌8%，但之後在散戶看好下，一度上漲100%。我們利用這個機會解釋什麼是IPO，投資IPO的股票是不是一定會賺錢。
- IPO，中文叫作首次公開募股，意思是公司第一次向大眾出售股票，讓一般民眾有投資這家公司的機會。因為之前公司股票沒有在市場公開交易過，股價往往第一天上市就有很大的波動，數據顯示從2008年以來，當年度IPO的股價在上市當天平均上漲9%~36%。(Source: Statista)
- 但這是不是代表投資人在上市當天進場買股票就會賺錢呢?並沒有這麼簡單，首先這裡的上漲9%，指的是你能以IPO的承銷價買到股票，而一般來說大部分的IPO股票都保留給金融機構，只有大約10%留給散戶。如果要進場買IPO股票，很有可能股價已經上漲，獲利可能縮水甚至虧損。另外，短期買賣股票的聯邦稅率超過40%，如果像加州這樣州稅高的地方，合計50%以上的獲利都要交給政府，未必划算。
- 那買進後長期持有呢?結果也不盡理想，研究顯示投資的時間越長，IPO的股價表現差異就越大，而且大部分的IPO股票表現都比整體市場差。所以即使想長期投資IPO，也要作好研究，不能盲目地買進。
- 最後提醒大家，IPO最活絡的時候往往就是牛市的最後階段，全球的IPO金額在今年上半年創下20年來最高的上半年紀錄，甚至超越2017、2018、2019的全年金額。當看到IPO的活動頻繁的時候，也是該居安思危，檢視投資組合的好時機。
2. 繼滴滴出行、教育股後，線上娛樂成為下一個可能被中國政府整頓的產業，消息傳出後騰訊股價大幅下挫，騰訊隨即宣布將限制兒童每日遊戲時間。政府一連串的措施導致投資人開始猜測電子煙及酒類將是下一個受影響的產業，導致股價下滑。除非投資有內線消息或是能預知未來的水晶球，分散風險在不同國家、不同產業是長期累積財富最穩健的作法。
3. 雖然目前美國股市並未重視Delta變種的影響，充其量只是在單日下跌又找不到其他理由時拿疫情充數，但疫情的惡化勢必會影響全球經濟發展。中國目前為控制疫情採取的旅遊禁令(請見”疫情更新”)將對原本暑期旅遊旺季的民間消費產生衝擊，假設疫情無法控制連帶影響中國的製造出口，將延長原本美國認為短期現象的通貨膨脹，最糟情況下導致長期的物價上漲。
4. 基礎建設法案經過討論修正後，預期最快將於本週末經參議院通過，該法案是數十年度最大規模以聯邦政府資金為主的公共建設計畫。
【疫情更新】
Delta變種在中國爆發，中國採取各式措施以控制疫情，包括禁止旅客進入北京等46個城市，是二月以來最嚴格的管制措施。
【救市措施】
美國疾病管制與預防中心宣布Delta變種影響嚴重地區將繼續執行房東不得驅離未繳房租房客的保護措施，該措施預估涵蓋90%人口，為期兩個月。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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