財經零距離 – 8/15/2022
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【市場更新】
1.週三公布的消費者物價指數較去年同期相較上升8.5%，低於市場預期，投資人紛紛揣測物價上漲已受控制，聯準會即將改弦更張，激勵股市上漲，特別是以科技股為主的納斯達克綜合指數自六月低點上漲超過20%，結束了長達五個月的熊市。市場也將九月聯準會升息0.75%的機率由近80%調整為接近50%。
- 通貨膨脹受控制是合理預期…: 雖然不能確保消費者物價指數短期不再創新高，但大方向上物價受到控制是合理預期，也是我們一直以來的預測。特別值得注意的是如果排除租金，消費者物價指數實際上較前月下跌0.3%，是2020年五月以來首次發生，如果經濟衰退發生，可能加速物價下跌。
- …聯準會會改弦更張卻是毫無根據: 聯準會最鴿派的兩名官員在當天皆表示聯準會今明兩年的升息不受任何影響，直到物價完全受到控制為止(這也是我們長期對聯準會的預測)。從週四開盤快速上漲的情況來看，市場顯然與聯準會看法不同。
- 股市短期超買，反彈高機率即將趨緩甚至反轉: 股市在六月中低點後持續反彈，特別在就業報告以及消費者物價指數皆優於預期的情況下，投資人擔心的經濟衰退及通貨膨脹/聯準會升息似乎都不再是太大的問題。但實際上經濟衰退及聯準會持續升息的風險並未降低。我們認為目前的反彈是熊市中常見的現象，並且短期已經出現超買的跡象，上升的走勢可能會趨緩甚至反轉，新投入市場的資金建議以保守謹慎為優先考慮。
2.美國各州、市退休基金平均創下2009年以來最差的單年報酬(7/1/2021~6/30/2022)，也是2009年以來首次單年報酬為負數。
- 在前一年度美國各州、市的退休基金平均報酬是27%，但今年立刻獲利回吐。許多投資人對自己或是整體市場的長期報酬沒有概念，往往將短期特別好的績效擴大解釋為每年都可以這麼理想，結果只能是大失所望。
【疫情更新】
美國新一波疫情有趨緩跡象。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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