財經零距離 – 8/19/2022
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【市場更新】
1.美國本週最重要的兩個新聞是幾家零售業龍頭的營運數據及聯準會公開市場委員會公布的七月會議記錄。從結果來看，市場都選擇了以正面角度來看待這兩個新聞: 零售業者的營運數據沒有想像中差、會議記錄看來聯準會有考慮到升息的負面影響，有可能之後會降息，但細節來看無法完全如此樂觀:
- Walmart的營運姞果優於市場預期，但是其實只是沒有七月時警告的那麼負面。此外、營收成長主要來自物價上漲，而獲利受到壓縮。最後，其CEO說較高收入的消費者開始轉向Walmart購買日用品，雖然對Walmart本身是好事，但從整體經濟角度來看，這反映了在物價上漲壓力下，消費者被迫開始購買較低價的商品，有可能進一步影響對非民生必需品的消費能力。至於其他像Target、Lowe’s的數據也並不亮眼。
- 市場忽視聯準會議記錄中提到有可能會維持緊縮的貨幣政策直到物價上漲確實受控制: 會議記錄中提及他們注意到包括消費者支出、購屋、企業投資、製造等整體經濟活動的降溫，並且提到升息帶來的負面影響。市場樂觀解讀預期聯準會可能會放緩升息的腳步，九月聯準會升息0.75%的機率進一步下跌。但從另一個角度來看，經濟活動已經降溫，但聯準會有可能會持續升息，可以說在經濟基本面及貨幣政策面對股市都不是特別有利的情況。
- 由最新的迷因股Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY)的表現來看，市場目前過度樂觀: BBBY由7/1低點$4.38上漲到8/17一度觸及$30，高低價差漲幅近六倍。8/8單日漲幅近40%。在BBBY基本面沒有太大改變的情況下，投資人的狂熱令人回想起GameStop的盛況。而觸及$30後兩天內快速下跌，週五收盤時只有$11，也讓人想到今年直到近二個月的反彈之前，迷因股、虛擬貨幣哀鴻遍野的景象。就是在如此樂觀的心態下，市場才會對包括上述兩項在內的許多訊息中選擇性地忽視了不利的成分。
2.在全球一片升息聲中，中國逆勢降息刺激經濟。除了中國的通貨膨脹並不嚴重之外，主要是中國目前來自內部及外部的需求都不理想: 中國對外出口受到歐美國家將消費重心由商品轉為服務類支出受到影響(還是那句話，很少人會每年換一台電視機)，而七月的零售數據低於去年同期，顯示中國的消費者也在撙節開支。在歐洲、美國都極有可能在今年步上經濟衰退的前提下，中國因自身問題的經濟趨緩將讓全球經濟成長更為艱辛。一旦歐美實際進入經濟衰退，也很可能對中國經濟造成進一步打擊。
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