財經零距離 – 8/20/2021
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【市場更新】
1. 星期三公布的聯準會七月會議記錄引發市場波動，聯準會官員大都同意經濟狀況持續改善，聯準會購買債券的政策可能在今年第四季開始縮小規模，逐步回復到疫情前的正常貨幣政策。
- 週三晚間的期貨跌幅超過1%，但週四早上開盤後逐步縮小跌幅甚至轉虧為盈，顯示逢低買進的心態依然主導市場。
- 在全球經濟疫情後的復甦可能受到Delta變種影響趨緩下(請見下文)，各國央行(特別是美國聯準會)的寬鬆政策是支持股市的主要力量，一旦美國聯準會收手，勢必對市場信心產生影響，再加上股市過去一年表現遠超過經濟基本面，長期來看大幅度修正不可避免。
- 但目前選擇權的賣權/買權比率(put/call ratio)高顯示機構投資人大多有避險，也就是已經為可能發生的修正作好準備，以短期來看，股市不容易出現暴跌的情況。
2. Delta變種影響全球經濟發展。中國公布的七月經濟數據，包括零售數據及工業生產在內皆不如預期，美國消費者由原本的購買商品(例如家電)轉向服務業消費(最明顯的是出外用餐)，也影響包括中國在內許多亞洲國家的出口。而美國公布的零售數據較前月衰退也超過預期，出外用餐消費是少數成長的項目，但棖據OpenTable資料顯示七月底至八月初的預約數據大幅下降，而機票及旅館取消也大幅上升。
- 市場原本對經濟復甦十分樂觀，但Delta變種極可能改變經濟復甦的進展，進而影響投資人信心。
3. 在我們Youtube Channel泛宇財經爆中有觀眾朋友留言詢問如果股票放長期投資10到20年，是不是就不用擔心目前市場的波動。長期投資是正確的觀念，但有一些小細節還是值得注意:
- 如果投資單一股票，首先要面對的就是公司倒閉的風險，其次即使經過長時間，也有許多當年體質不錯的公司之後表現不佳，如果2001年8/1開始投資通用電氣/奇異(GE)到今年7/31，連同股利報酬是-47%，幾近腰斬。(Source: YCharts)
- 如果投資單一國家整體的股票指數呢?當然歸零的機率極低(只發生過兩次: 1917年俄國聖彼得堡交易所，另一次是1949中國上海)，長期投資還沒回本的機率也大幅降低，但不是不可能: 日經指數過了30年也還沒回到之前泡沫經濟的高點(image 2; Source: Wikipedia)。
而且這裡還樂觀假定投資人真的完全不受情緒影響。不要忘記即使是少數歷史上能持續再創新高的美國股市，標普500也在2007~2009年間下跌55%，遠超過大部分人的風險承受能力。 - 所以即使是長期投資，如果投資過度集中單一國家、產業、公司還是有可能遭受損失，也容易因為波動過大導致不能長抱，建議投資人善用美國的ETF市場投資不同的金融資產及市場分散風險並長期持有一個完整的投資組合。
【疫情更新】
- 美國政府即將開始針對部分民眾施打第三針加強劑。紐西蘭也在六個月以來首次的確診案例發生下宣布封鎖部分地區。原本疫苗施打率高，被視為典範的以色列也爆發大流行，部分專家擔心該現象反映疫苗的保護力將隨時間減弱。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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