財經零距離 – 8/26/2022
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【市場更新】
1.週五聯準會主席Jerome Powell在Jackson Hole會議後的談話始終是市場的焦點。週五開盤不久，Jerome Powell在談話中指出聯準會將持續升息，並且將維持利息在較高的水準直到有信心物價受到控制為止。可以說與之前聯準會官員的警告完全一致，市場對聯準會會改弦更張的大膽預期並沒有成真，市場隨即快速下跌，我們認為市場還有機會向下，要積極進場的投資人建議再觀望一段時間。以下是本週稍早與Jackson Hole會議相關的新聞:
- 新聞媒體將週一、週二市場下跌部分歸因於市場不預期聯準會會改變目前貨幣政策方向，認為Jerome Powell會後的發言將十分鷹派，將大幅降低明年降息的可能性。
- 相對而言，賓州大學華頓商學院的教授Jeremy Siegel則認為在市場如此悲觀的情況下，一旦Jerome Powell的發言較預期鴿派，週五市場極有可能大漲。
- 拜登總統提出的學生貸款減免法案被部分媒體分析可能會助長通貨膨脹，擔心會給Jerome Powell更多藉口緊縮貨幣政策。
2.為刺激經濟及房市，中國央行持續提出振興方案，人民幣隨之走貶，人民幣對美元處於兩年來的新低點，在雙方央行貨幣政策背道而馳的情況下(美國升息、中國降息)，目前人民幣的弱勢不易改變。
3.新興市場國家外匯存底減少幅度創2008年以來最快速度。美元持續攀升導致新興市場國家央行必需動用外匯存底以穩定本國貨幣，外匯存底同時用來支應高漲的油價及糧食價格。除少數幾個國家相對穩定外，其他新興市場國家狀況不樂觀，宜減持對新興市場的投資。
4.知名百貨業者Nordstrom及Macy’s皆調降今年的獲利預期，表示對消費者非民生必需品支出的憂慮。
5.OPEC組織鑑於期貨市場的不穩定有可能決定減產石油。不論其理由合不合理，石油減產有可能讓已經開始下滑的美國物價再度充滿不確定性，值得持續關注。
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