財經零距離 – 8/27/2021

Categories: 家族辦公室, 金融時事Published On: August 27th, 202110.9 min readViews: 22093

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【市場更新】

1. 「聯準會帶頭印鈔票導致未來會有嚴重的通貨膨脹」是十分流行的說法，然而現在大家感受到的物價上漲與聯準會及各國央行印鈔票沒有太大的關係，疫情對供應鍊造成的影響才是物價上漲的主因，通貨膨脹的成因決定了它將會是短期或是長期現象，也對資產配置有重大影響，這也是我們不厭其煩地在財經零距離中釐清的原因。

雖然各國央行狂印鈔票，但鈔票在市場的周轉率直線下降抵銷了印鈔票的影響: 以美國為例，部分分析師會拿出M2貨幣供給量的圖(在此不解釋M2貨幣供給量的定義，簡單把它想成是央行印出的鈔票就好)，看起來美國政府長期不斷地印鈔票，特別是在疫情期間M2貨幣供給從$15.5兆快速增加到$20.5兆，感覺起來鈔票與廢紙無異(Source: Ycharts)。但這個說法沒有考慮到，所謂的印鈔票其實是聯準會將資金放給銀行，如果銀行在考量風險及法令遵循成本下沒有把錢放到實際經濟活動上流動(例如放款融資)，錢在市場的周轉率直線下降，將會抵銷印鈔票的影響，而這正是自2000年以來發生的情況(Source: Ycharts)。
目前看到的物價上漲，大多直接受疫情影響，屬短期現象: 在美國內部發生像是食品工廠在部分地區缺工所以減少甚至停止供應需要大量人工的肉品。如果放到全球視角，相對疫苗覆蓋率較高的美國需求旺盛，但疫苗覆蓋率較低的製造中心亞洲國家大多選擇工廠、港口停工以控制疫情，對生產以及運輸產生重大影響。只要疫情能受到控制，物價上漲可能就只是短期現象，像日前全球第三大貿易港中國寧波恢復作業，即讓大家燃起供應鍊的限制將得到舒緩的希望。
長期的通貨膨脹不是不可能，但目前寬鬆的貨幣政策主要影響的是「金融資產」價格而非日常商品價格: 目前的物價上漲是全球現象，但身為亞洲第一個升息的央行，韓國央行升息的主要理由是擔心(金融)資產泡沫，而非通貨膨脹。
在資產配置上，應該同時考慮通貨膨脹(黃金、不動產)及通貨緊縮(債券)的可能性: 黃金、不動產都是在物價上漲時表現不錯的金融資產，但在通貨緊縮也有可能發生的情況下，不應該過度集中在黃金及不動產，也應該考慮適度分散在如果通貨緊縮將會受益的金融資產，例如債券。

2. 眾議院通過$3.5兆基礎建設法案的預算架構及$1兆的基礎建設法案，有可能在秋季時同時經兩院通過及總統簽字後施行。

【疫情更新】

日本擴大緊急狀態的地域範圍至半數的都道府縣，並延長時間至9/12/2021。

【救市措施】

美國最高法院認定疾病控制及預防中心並無權限執行保護房客不受驅離的規定並取消該規定。

圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者

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