財經零距離 – 9/10/2021
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【市場更新】
1. 聯準會最新公布的褐皮書顯示經濟活動在八月開始趨緩，特別是外出用餐、旅遊等活動因為Delta病毒的擴散而減少或取消。
- 美國經濟主要依賴民間消費推動，未來對商品的消費極難維持過去一年消費者只能在家購買商品的高峰，原本期待在疫情好轉下對服務業的報復性消費也因Delta病毒的影響而不甚樂觀(早在Delta病毒出現前，我們的觀點就是服務業的性質導致報復性消費不易發生 – 消費者不可能經常拜訪理髮店把之前沒理的頭髮「理回來」。民眾在假期期間可能願意多花一點錢，但假期有限也不可能渡極端的長假。)
- 在市場仍然維持高點，但經濟前景逐漸不確定的情況下，各大金融機構也紛紛提出警告市場可能會小幅修正，但並沒有人預期暴跌。
- 我們維持之前的看法，在疫情影響及暑期結束、交易將逐漸回復熱絡下，短期內暴跌的機率不高，但10%的修正極有可能。
2. 財政部長Janet Yellen呼籲國會議員在在10月政府用罄準備金前取消或提高聯邦政府舉債上限。
- 雖然我們仍然預期債務上限問題會解決，但依市場目前漠不關心的態度，在投資人因任何理由對市場失去信心時，這則負面新聞有可能扮演推波助瀾的效果。
3. 之前極其熱門的GameStop，在週三公布遜於預期的獲利數字及並未提供任何明確轉型計畫後，盤後市場下跌8%。
- 我們在節目中常提到主人與狗的概念:經濟是主人，股市是狗，股市短期內可能背離經濟，但長期終究要回歸經濟基本面。個股也是如此，企業獲利是主人，股價是狗，股價最終要回歸獲利基本面。在dot com泡沫中高喊「本夢比」來合理化高股價的投資人都承受了重大的損失，而投資中最危險的四個字就是”This time is different.”(通常公司股價的合理性是看本益比，也就是股價相對獲利的倍數，但是在dot com泡沫時期許多網路公司沒有獲利或是獲利極低，本益比無法計算或是極高的離譜，於是就有分析師發明「本夢比」這個名詞，宣稱短期沒有獲利沒關係，重點是有夢想，而夢想有一天會實現，所以當時的高股價並非不合理。結果當然是「好夢由來最易醒」，隨著股價泡沫幻滅，本夢比終究只是一場夢而已。)
【疫情更新】
- 澳洲人口最多的城市雪梨為因第三波疫情，將延長封鎖活動直至九月底。美國將要求部分勞動人口強制施打疫苗，約占整體勞動人口的三分之二。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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