財經零距離 – 9/16/2022
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【市場更新】
1. 在週二公布消費者物價指數之前，俄烏衝突的進展可能緩解部分投資人對能源危機及其造成的通貨膨脹憂慮。但週二公布的消費者物價指數遠不如市場預期，引發股市大跌，標普500下跌4.3%，是2020年六月以來的最大單日跌幅。
- 通膨沒有再創新高，但遠不如投資人想像的樂觀:大方向上，通貨膨脹並沒有再創高峰，八月的消費者物價指數較去年同期上升8.3%，略低於七月的8.5%。但市場原本樂觀估計僅上升8.1%，再加上核心消費者物價指數，也就是排除食物及油價這些波動較大的項目的指數，反而還較七月上升。簡單來說，市場了解到通貨膨脹要迅速受到控制，聯準會能放心降息還要一段時間，因此引發投資人拋售金融資產。市場已經預期下週聯準會不但很有可能升息0.75%，甚至有可能升息1%。
- 近期將有反彈，但未來仍有可能測試六月低點，反點仍是好賣點: 在市場方面，雖然市場單日暴跌，但並沒有到超賣的階段。我們維持原來的看法，在未來一段時間股市有可能再度測試六月的低點，但短期(或許下週就會出現)依然會有反彈的機會，仍然建議反彈都是好的賣點。
2. 除了物價持續上漲及聯準會升息之外，部分企業看壞未來經濟狀況也值得注意，特別是Fedex週四盤後公布的獲利及展望帶動了週五開盤的市場下跌:
- 全球快遞龍頭Fedex上季獲利遠低於預期，Fedex CEO警告全球貨運量受總體經濟惡化影響大幅衰退。他在之後接受電視台訪問時表示經濟衰退已經發生。物流產業通常反應整體產業的現況，市場目前認為Fedex所面臨的問題並不是Fedex自身經營不善，而是整體經濟活動趨緩的結果。
- 全球第二大家電廠商Electrolux宣布撙節開支方案，並警告受物價上漲及消費者信心影響，三季歐美的家電需求將遠低於第二季，而目前市面上大量的存貨將進一步擴大需求降低的影響。
3. 利差反轉(利率倒掛)近一步惡化，美國十年期及兩年期公債利差已經來到2000年以來最低水準，經濟衰退早已不是「會不會」而是「何時發生」的問題。
(Source: Refinitiv Workspace)
4. 繼南韓、中國、台灣之後，日本是下一個出口導向地區的受害者，在進口上升(主要是能源需求)及弱勢日圓的影響下，日本創下了有史以來最高的單月貿易赤字。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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