財經零距離 – 9/17/2021
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【市場更新】
1. 市場本週小幅震盪，市場普遍相信標普500在50日均線有支撐，而我們以其他技術分析角度來看也認為在4430左右有支撐，短期或許會有小幅反彈。
(Source: Refinitiv)
2. 眾議院賦稅委員會公布加稅的計畫，主要內容包括將企業所得稅由21%調升至26.5%，美國企業海外所得的最低稅負稅率由10.5%調升為16.6%;個人所得稅率由37%恢復為39.6%，最高的長期資本利得稅率由20%調升為25%，另外針對個人所得超過$5百萬美元的家庭加收額外3%的所得稅。部分行政機關希望的改變並未包含在此計畫中，例如個人死亡時就遺產中未實現獲利課稅，或是國稅局提議的要求銀行彙報超過$600的交易提案，皆未包含在內。
- 眾所皆知，目前的提案及最後通過的版本(如果最後能通過)可能會有很大差異，但政府加稅看來是長期不可避免的趨勢，對投資人也會有極大的衝擊。舉例來說，「如果」上述的加稅計畫通過，原本最高稅率為23.8%的長期資本利得，稅率將提高至31.8%，稅率提高超過30%。如果是在州稅高的地方，例如加州，加上州稅後變成45.1%。另外，對企業加稅也會影響企業獲利，對市場產生影響。
- 以下是8/13財經零距離對觀眾朋友的建議，”…除了單純追求投資報酬外，也要注重稅務規劃，以追求較高的稅後淨報酬。在投資時應優先利用免稅或緩稅的帳戶，除了大部分民眾都可以利用的退休帳戶(IRA, 401k, etc.)，針對高淨值家庭也有可以將股票帳戶放進保險政策達到免所得稅效果的PPLI (Private Placement Life Insurance)可考慮。當然每個人狀況不同，最好是讓專業人士分析你的財務狀況後提供建議。”
- 要強調的是，既然注意的是「稅後淨報酬」，就要避免單純重視稅的影響而忽視整體報酬的「尾巴搖狗」。例如Muni的收益雖然免稅，但換算稅後收益率原本在疫情前比公債高出0.3~0.5%，但在今年上半年公債收益率快速上升，而Muni收益率接近不動的情況下，Muni與公債的稅後收益率相差無幾，大幅降低了Muni對高所得者的吸引力。
3. Bloomberg新聞中提及「惡性通膨」(Stagflation)的次數創近年新高。
(Source: The Daily Shot)我們在兩週前介紹過惡性通膨的概念，也強調雖然短期因疫情影響供應鍊導致物價上漲，但惡性通膨發生機率依然偏低。觀眾朋友在資產配置時要避免受媒體渲染影響、過度集中在「認為」會受益於惡性通膨的資產。
4. 中國八月經濟數據受Delta病毒及政府規範不動產產業影響大幅下滑，零售數據較去年同期僅增長2.5%，遠低於經濟學家預期及七月數據，房屋銷售較去年同期相較也創下自2020年四月以來最大的衰遏幅度。
- 即使經濟數據不理想再近來一連串中國政府規範科技業對中國股市造成的衝擊，也不代表投資人應放棄投資中國市場。但過度集中投資中國市場是承擔不必要的投資風險，也未必能確保長期較高的投資收益。還是應該以全球角度進行資產配置，
【疫情更新】
- 日本延長針對疫情的緊急狀況至九月三十日。以色列計畫施打第四劑的疫苗。中國福建地區爆發新一波的Delta疫情感染。疫苗覆蓋率達81%的新加坡創下一年以來最高的新增單日確診病例。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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