財經零距離 – 9/18/2020
Betty Shih
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【市場更新】
1. 本週股市下跌，市場在缺乏明顯利多消息的情況下，獲利了結的心態依然主宰市場。
2. 聯準會在週三重申在通貨膨脹持續超過2%前不會升息，預期在2023年底之前都會接近零利率。但聯準會也重申僅憑聯準會不足以重振經濟，仍然需要政府財政政策的支持，特別是美國的勞動市場，可能要經過長時間才能回覆聯準會預期的充份就業水準。
- 週三股市在聯準會發布消息後短暫上揚，但之後一路下跌，收盤時由綠翻紅。部分媒體歸因於聯準會主席Jerome Powell對未來經濟展望充滿不確定性的評論。但聯準會在當天其實反而對未來的經濟發展估計較之前樂觀，這個理由很牽強。
- 也有人認為聯準會沒有說明市場期待有關於量化寬鬆(QE)的更多細節是導致市場下跌的主因。
- 我們的看法是，市場在缺乏基本面下要持續如此快速的反彈，需要更多的利多消息，聯準會的新聞雖然正面，但已不足於激勵市場。再加上復甦力道趨緩，未來市場難以維持過去一段時間的快速漲幅，將會導致部分零售投資人對市場失望而拋售，喜歡炒作短線的投資人還是以保守為宜。
3. 美國上月零售數據連續第四個月成長，但成長開始趨緩，顯示零售業的復甦可能失去動能，持續趨緩可能會影響包括中國在內的出口導向國家(請見下文)。
4. 中國上月零售數據本年度首次成長，但仍遠遜於工業生產的復甦程度。
(Source: Bloomberg)
- 中國工業生產復甦主要有賴於全球需求回溫，這與歐美國家之前大規模的紓困方案有很大的關係。
- 中國本身消費復甦遲緩除了因為中國沒有大規模紓困方案外(是經濟體質好、不需要，還是限制多、作不到見仁見智，我們評估後者的比重略大一些)，也反映中國經濟復甦依然與全球、特別是歐美最終消費市場連動，絕對不是像某些人認為「中國龐大的內需機器一旦啟動」就能解決所有問題。
【疫情更新】
1. WHO警告covid-19在歐洲可能再次爆發，目前新增確診人數速度超越三月時的尖峰。英國科學家已建議政府於十月時停工、停課兩個星期。相形之下，美國疫情在之前惡化後目前再度受到控制。
【救市措施】
1. 50名跨黨派的眾議院議員提出了折衷的$1.5兆美元紓困方案，受到川普總統及民主黨籍眾議院發言人Nancy Pelosi的支持，但共和黨主導的參議院仍有反對意見，兩黨仍在持續協商中。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
Disclosure TransGlobal Advisory, LLC is a Registered Investment Adviser. This platform is solely for informational purposes. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where TransGlobal Advisory, LLC and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. No advice may be rendered by TransGlobal Advisory, LLC unless a client service agreement is in place. “Likes” are not intended to be endorsements of our firm, our advisors or our services. Please be aware that while we monitor comments and “likes” left on this page, we do not endorse or necessarily share the same opinions expressed by site users. While we appreciate your comments and feedback please be aware that any form of testimony from current or past clients about their experience with our firm is strictly forbidden under current securities laws. Please honor our request to limit your posts to industry-related educational information and comments. Third-party rankings and recognitions are no guarantee of future investment success and do not ensure that a client or prospective client will experience a higher level of performance or results. These ratings should not be construed as an endorsement of the advisor by any client nor are they representative of any one client’s evaluation. TransGlobal Advisory, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. TransGlobal Advisory, LLC may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions.
【市場更新】
1. 本週股市下跌，市場在缺乏明顯利多消息的情況下，獲利了結的心態依然主宰市場。
2. 聯準會在週三重申在通貨膨脹持續超過2%前不會升息，預期在2023年底之前都會接近零利率。但聯準會也重申僅憑聯準會不足以重振經濟，仍然需要政府財政政策的支持，特別是美國的勞動市場，可能要經過長時間才能回覆聯準會預期的充份就業水準。
- 週三股市在聯準會發布消息後短暫上揚，但之後一路下跌，收盤時由綠翻紅。部分媒體歸因於聯準會主席Jerome Powell對未來經濟展望充滿不確定性的評論。但聯準會在當天其實反而對未來的經濟發展估計較之前樂觀，這個理由很牽強。
- 也有人認為聯準會沒有說明市場期待有關於量化寬鬆(QE)的更多細節是導致市場下跌的主因。
- 我們的看法是，市場在缺乏基本面下要持續如此快速的反彈，需要更多的利多消息，聯準會的新聞雖然正面，但已不足於激勵市場。再加上復甦力道趨緩，未來市場難以維持過去一段時間的快速漲幅，將會導致部分零售投資人對市場失望而拋售，喜歡炒作短線的投資人還是以保守為宜。
3. 美國上月零售數據連續第四個月成長，但成長開始趨緩，顯示零售業的復甦可能失去動能，持續趨緩可能會影響包括中國在內的出口導向國家(請見下文)。
4. 中國上月零售數據本年度首次成長，但仍遠遜於工業生產的復甦程度。
(Source: Bloomberg)
- 中國工業生產復甦主要有賴於全球需求回溫，這與歐美國家之前大規模的紓困方案有很大的關係。
- 中國本身消費復甦遲緩除了因為中國沒有大規模紓困方案外(是經濟體質好、不需要，還是限制多、作不到見仁見智，我們評估後者的比重略大一些)，也反映中國經濟復甦依然與全球、特別是歐美最終消費市場連動，絕對不是像某些人認為「中國龐大的內需機器一旦啟動」就能解決所有問題。
【疫情更新】
1. WHO警告covid-19在歐洲可能再次爆發，目前新增確診人數速度超越三月時的尖峰。英國科學家已建議政府於十月時停工、停課兩個星期。相形之下，美國疫情在之前惡化後目前再度受到控制。
【救市措施】
1. 50名跨黨派的眾議院議員提出了折衷的$1.5兆美元紓困方案，受到川普總統及民主黨籍眾議院發言人Nancy Pelosi的支持，但共和黨主導的參議院仍有反對意見，兩黨仍在持續協商中。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
Disclosure TransGlobal Advisory, LLC is a Registered Investment Adviser. This platform is solely for informational purposes. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where TransGlobal Advisory, LLC and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. No advice may be rendered by TransGlobal Advisory, LLC unless a client service agreement is in place. “Likes” are not intended to be endorsements of our firm, our advisors or our services. Please be aware that while we monitor comments and “likes” left on this page, we do not endorse or necessarily share the same opinions expressed by site users. While we appreciate your comments and feedback please be aware that any form of testimony from current or past clients about their experience with our firm is strictly forbidden under current securities laws. Please honor our request to limit your posts to industry-related educational information and comments. Third-party rankings and recognitions are no guarantee of future investment success and do not ensure that a client or prospective client will experience a higher level of performance or results. These ratings should not be construed as an endorsement of the advisor by any client nor are they representative of any one client’s evaluation. TransGlobal Advisory, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. TransGlobal Advisory, LLC may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions.
