財經零距離 – 9/2/2022
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【市場更新】
1.週五公布的就業報告數據並沒有讓市場認為聯準會會加速升息，再加上之前快速下跌，短期超賣，本週美股連續下跌後迎來了反彈，但反彈僅曇花一現。
- 就業報告給了聯準會放緩升息腳步的想像空間: 美國八月新增315,000非農就業人口，雖然略低於預期的318,000及遠低於七月數據528,000，但仍然被認為就業市場並未大幅衰退。再加上失業率由3.5%微幅上升至3.7%，讓部分分析師預期九月聯準會升息0.75%的機率降低。
- 我們依然認為物價是聯準會在現階段唯一重視的經濟數據: 包括聯準會主席Jerome Powell在內的多名官員已經多次強調聯準會在有信心將物價上漲控制在2%前不會縮手，言猶在耳，投資人不應該對聯準會放緩升息存有幻想。如果聯準會真的因為物價以外的理由開始降息，那很有可能代表經濟已經惡化到他們不得不出手的地步，其實也不是什麼好消息。
- 迎來預期的反彈，但未來走勢尚待觀察: 週五的反彈與其說是市場對就業報告放心，不如說是市場短期超賣下的產物。我們在週二股動財富中播出的臨時插播預期反彈的到來，但不排除之後有機會再度測試六月的低點。而目前的反彈力度並不明顯，甚至並未持續至收盤，無法讓我們改變之前的預期。依然建議高波動、不預期能長期投資的部位應該考慮趁反彈的時候出清、降低風險。
2.晶片廠Nvidia指出美國政府禁止其輸出高端晶片至中國，引發股價下跌。Nvidia的技術、規模無庸置疑，但受半導體產業以及政策影響，自去年11月高點以來股價已下跌近六成，認為有前景的公司或產業就可以單一重押的投資人應該檢視自己的假設是否合理。
3.韓國貿易赤字創新高，分析認為主要是受外銷市場需求不振，而非供應鍊影響。韓國這類出口導向國家一向視為對全球景氣變化最為敏感，全球景氣是否已明顯趨緩值得關注, 目前投資仍建議以保守、防禦為主。
【疫情更新】
中國31個省份皆出現確診病例，成都市自週四晚上六點起封城。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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