財經零距離 – 9/23/2022
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【市場更新】
1.市場原本已預期聯準會會升息0.75%，甚至是1%，所以當週三聯準會宣布升息0.75%的時候，股市開始上漲。但之後聯準會主席Jerome Powell在記者會上的發言在兩方面嚴重地打擊了市場，第一個他承認了經濟衰退的風險，Jerome Powell提到隨著聯準會必需採取更緊縮的政策，經濟軟著陸的機率持續降低。第二個他再次重申直到通貨膨脹控制在2%以下之前，聯準會不會縮手。目前市場已經預期在今年剩下的兩次會議上，聯準會將再升息1.25%，而11月再次升息0.75%的機率極高。
- 金融機構調降標普500預期: 高盛認為聯準會的利率政策會影響美股的估值，將標普500今年年底目標由4,300點下修為3,600點。
- 短期仍有反彈可期，避免因恐慌盲目地拋售: 雖然經濟衰退烏雲籠罩，道瓊工業指數已經破六月低點，而標普500及納斯達克綜合指數也可能隨之創新低(標普500六月低點為3,636.87)，但短期上看來這波的跌勢即將暫緩，有機會迎來反彈，視未來走勢，這波的反彈有機會比較強勁也可能維持比較長的時間，有能力在反彈期間獲利的投資人可以考慮把握這個機會，對大部分的投資人來說還是建議反彈是好賣點，可以考慮分批出場。
2.聯準會緊縮的貨幣政策導致美元持續走強，其他各國貨幣創多年新低: 英磅低於$1.11，創37年來新低。歐元2002年來首見跌破$0.98。印度盧比創歷史新低。
- 一時之間似乎就沒有人敢再討論美元將失去儲備貨幣地位的議題，美元通常在全球景氣不理想時表現較佳，如果資產中完全沒有美元配置的，即使美元迭創新高，仍可以考慮部分配置於美元。如果一時沒找到理想的投資標的，短天期國庫券可以提供超過3%的年化收益，也是不錯的選擇。
3.美國公開公司會計監督委員會(PCAOB)赴香港檢查中國在美上市公司的審計記錄文件，如果一切順利，中國在美上市公司將暫時排除下市危機。
【疫情更新】
日本預計於十月十一日取消疫情的邊境管制措施。香港也取消入境旅客需居任於防疫旅館的規定。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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