財經零距離 – 9/3/2021
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【市場更新】
1. 我們上週談到長期通貨膨脹是有可能但相對機率較低的情境，最有可能的還是長期物價平穩或是緩步上揚。如果目前因為疫情造成的短期物價上漲出乎大家意料的變成長期現象，在最差的情況下，有可能演變成停滯性通膨(Stagflation)，我們今天就來討論停滯性通膨的成因以及對投資的影響。
- 「一般」的通貨膨脹並不是最壞的情況:通常講到的通貨膨脹是因為經濟成長，對產品、服務的需求增加導致物價上漲，雖然錢本身的購買力下降，但至少民眾的所得是上升趨勢，對大部分人而言是個雖不滿意但可以接受的情況。(最完美當然是經濟成長、所得上升但物價又平穩的環境)。
- 但停滯性通膨是最壞的組合: 在停滯性通膨的情況下，經濟停止成長甚至可能衰退，物價上漲主要不是因為需求的增加，而是供給的減少。在這種情況下，民眾的所得沒有上升、甚至可能衰退，但物價卻持續上漲，大概可說是民眾痛苦指數最高的時期。
- 目前看來停滯性通膨機率偏低，但高於長期通貨膨脹的可能性: 我們認為過去一段時間的經濟復甦會逐漸趨緩，一來是因為美國之前的紓困方案影響力隨時間經過而減小，另一方面是各類病毒變種帶來的不確定性。而在生產/供給方面，我們看到因為疫情的影響，全球都發生勞工短缺(從屠宰場、工廠的工人到卡車司機的全球現象)、貨運受影響，再加上亞洲許多製造重心國家缺乏疫苗、必需採取封鎖的方式以控制疫情，已經造成物價上漲。如果疫情對生產、運輸的衝擊演變成長期現象，在最壞的情況下有可能演變為停滯性通膨。
- 如果真的演變為停滯性通膨，通常整體金融資產的表現都會受到不良影響，那什麼樣的投資比較恰當呢?民生必需品、醫療保健等基本必需產業通常表現較好。另外、原物料以及工業類股也是較不受影響的產業。不動產對對抗通貨膨脹有一定效果，但還是要注意價格是否已脫離合理範圍，自用型住宅在過去一年的上漲下，未來對抗通膨的效果可能較差。
2. 在疫情期間廣被大家使用的Zoom首次創下單季營收超過$10億美元，但股價持續下跌，除了營收成長速度不如之前亮眼外，未來中小企業和消費者很可能逐漸恢復實體會議，減少對Zoom的支出。
- 許多受益疫情的股票，在短期內營收、獲利一飛沖天，也讓投資人預期如此的高成長率可以長期持續，連帶帶動股價短時間內暴漲。但疫情終究是暫時現象，即使合理預期Covid-19無法根除，民眾必需找到相對應的共處之道，異常的高成長無法長期維持，炫爛終究要回歸平淡。視訊會議及Zoom這家公司可能會持續存在很長一段時間，但在高價時買進Zoom股票的投資人何時能回本就很難說了。
3. 民主黨參議員Joe Manchin呼籲民主黨應考量通貨膨脹的影響、暫緩通過$3.5兆的基礎建設法案，為該法案是否能通過投下變數。
【疫情更新】
- 包括麥當勞在內的美國速食業者受Delta變種擴散影響，關閉內用區或減少開放時間。
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