財經零距離 – 9/30/2022
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【市場更新】
1. 本週英國新首相Truss提出的減稅政策造成英磅持續下跌、投資人拋售英國公債，並連帶影響了美國的債券及股票市場。之後在英國央行宣布將無限量地在市場上買進英國公債後，市場才逐漸穩定，也帶動了週三美股的大漲。但週四部分聯準會官員的鷹派發言，再加上美國銀行調降蘋果評等，導致週三反彈無法持續。
- 特拉斯提出的大規模減稅方案令市場擔心英國政府的財政赤字問題，除了受到強勢美元的影響，英磅持續下跌之外，也讓投資人對英國未來的償債能力信心動搖，英國公債持續下跌。
- 許多英國退休基金以高槓桿作多英國公債，在追繳保證金的壓力下拋售英國公債。而美國公債也連帶受到影響，美國公債利率上升，連帶股票市場在週二下跌，標普500跌破了六月的低點。
- 短期來看，目前投資人信心極度地悲觀，只要市場有部分好消息，甚至是不太壞的消息都有機會帶動市場的反彈，如果納斯達克綜合指數也跟上標普500及道瓊工業指數跌破六月低點的話，對這種可操作的反彈會更有信心。
- 還是要提醒觀眾朋友，不是每個人都適合在反彈時積極操作，就算積極操作，也建議之後要謹慎，之後轉為防禦型部位。
2.在強勢美元及本身經濟政策影響下，人民幣跌破疫情期間新低
(Source: Refinitive Workspace)。中國央行一方面強調人民幣匯率穩定擁有堅實基礎，一方面責成國企銀行準備拋售美元以穩定人民幣。
- 雖然美國經濟前景有隱憂(請見下文)，但美國經濟現況依然強勁，再加上美國政府無意干預美元走勢，美元目前強勢程度甚至超過疫情初期，且短期內仍有可能持續。
3.美國經濟數據依然正向，特別是首次申請失業救濟人數連續數週下跌。但部分公司及市場的消息可能暗示前景並不樂觀:
- Amazon計畫在十月舉行第二次Prime Member Sales以消化多餘庫存。
- 隨房市冷卻，木材價格自2021年五月高點已下跌75%。
- 蘋果對iPhone需求評估不樂觀，決定取消增產計畫。
- Nike週四宣布過多的存貨及強勢美元將影響未來獲利，當日盤後股價下跌超過10%。
- 二手車商CarMax獲利大幅衰退，顯示民眾疫情以來對二手車的需求已大幅降低，週四股價下跌近25%。但同時二手車價格下跌對控制通貨膨脹有正面效果。
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