財經零距離 – 9/9/2022

Categories: 家族辦公室, 金融時事Published On: September 12th, 202211 min readViews: 26443
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【市場更新】

1.本週市場在週二觸低點反彈,在有更明顯的市場轉強訊號之前,反彈都是好的賣點。聯準會預期在9/21開會並公布升息,最理想的狀況下投資人應抱持長期投資的心理,不須理會升息帶來的短期影響。如果真的抱持交易心態,應該降低風險,預防與市場預期不同的新聞帶來的負面影響。

  • 值得注意的是聯準會主席Jerome Powell週四再次強調聯準會控制通膨的決心,九月升息0.75%的機率已接近90%。但市場並沒有任何負面反應並且上漲作收。新聞媒體的解釋是市場已完全消化該不利訊息,但也有可能是在目前的反彈階段市場裝作沒看到負面消息,等市場冷靜才會面對現實。

2.雖然美國之前的經濟數據都沒太大問題,但有越來越多的資料顯示全球經濟開始降溫(請見下文),這也是為何我們一直建議新投入的資金以保守、謹慎為優先。許多人想到安全投資就想到美國公債,但在升息的情況下,美國長天期公債也受到了嚴重的損失,20年期以上的美國公債ETF TLT自高點下跌超過30%,是該ETF有史以來最大的跌幅。再次強調債券只有持有至到期才能確定拿回本金,未到期前出場都有可能遭受損失。如果資金一、兩年內就要運用,即使是長天期的公債也不適合投資。完全無法承受風險的投資人可以考慮三個月期的美國國庫券,年化利息近3%。如果願意承擔較高風險以獲取更高利息,也可以考慮條件型保本的結構化商品。

3.上週我們提到南韓貿易赤字創歷史新高,顯示全球景氣降溫、需求減少,而同為出口導向的中國及台灣本週公布的出口數字也不甚理想,中國八月出口較去年同期成長7.1%,低於預期的13%; 台灣八月出口較去年同期成長2%,遠低於預期的11.6%,同時創下2020年七月以來最低的出口成長數據,人民幣及新台幣都創近期新低。

4.俄羅斯以維修理由無限期暫停Nord Stream 1輸氣管供氣,歐洲天然氣價格再度飆升,歐元價格一度跌破$0.99,創2002以來新低。德意志銀行CEO警告德國將無法避免地步入經濟衰退。

5.長期關注Amazon的顧問公司MWPVL International Inc.估計Amazon將關閉或是取消42個倉儲中心。因Amazon本身在電子商務市場的龍頭地位,該新聞也可能暗示整體電子商務、零售,甚至倉儲類商用不動產的前景沒有之前投資人預期的如此美好。

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