財經零距離 – 7/23/2021
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【市場更新】
1. 本週市場宛如雲霄飛車，週一市場大跌，但在收盤前跌勢已開始縮小，接下來持續上漲讓本週股市由紅翻綠。原本市場擔心的Delta變種似乎週二開始就不再是威脅。
- 自疫情以來的市場發展讓許多人覺得大跌後必定反彈，除了許多過去一年才開始投入市場的散戶外，甚至連JP Morgan及UBS的分析師也鼓勵客戶逢低買進，為市場提供了有效支撐。
- 從另一角度來看，CNN的貪婪恐慌指數顯示市場在下跌前已經處於”恐慌”狀態，有利於之後的反彈。(Source: The Daily Shot)
- 但從基本面來看，除了上週提到的中國經濟成長數據較預期為低以及Citi的經濟意外指數持續下跌外，密西根大學的調查顯示消費者買房、買車的意願大減，甚至低於包括疫情在內的經濟衰退期間數據，對未來經濟成展恐有重大負面影響。(Source: Rosenberg Research)
- 過去一年市場下跌後必定反彈，但未來未必如此發展，就好像長期餵火雞的那隻手在感恩節當天早上會把火雞送上主人餐桌一樣。在符合自己風險承受範圍內不要恐慌、長期持有是我們的理念，但下跌後加碼就未必是一個長期可靠的策略。
2. 之前提到的債務上限問題，預期未來一段時間將更大幅被媒體報導，也極有可能在市場下跌時作為市場下跌的理由。過去兩年在債務上限凍結下，政府得以無視債務上限無限制地借款，債務上限凍結即將在七月底到期後，總統及國會必需討論通過提高債務上限或是再度凍結債務上限。
- 參議院少數黨領袖Mitch McConneel表示共和黨將不會同意提高債務上限，如果國會不通過，國會預算辦公室警告美國政府將在十月、十一月間面臨無錢可花的窘境。
- 可以合理預期兩黨目前的喊話都是為了增加日後的談判籌碼，國會終究能在債務上限議題達成共識，但談判過程除了直接影響市場信心外，談判結果也可能影響基礎建設法案的規模及政府支出，對基本面產生衝擊，
【疫情更新】
雖然疫苗對減輕Delta變種造成的重症有效果，但許多沒有施打疫苗的人確診導致美國新增確診人數較上週增加53%、死亡人數增加19%。
【救市措施】
拜登政府研擬對無法支付房貸的民眾延長救濟措施。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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