3月CPI漲幅低於預期 通膨加速降溫？

3月CPI漲幅低於市場預期

聯準會到底何時會停止升息是上週股市關注的焦點。在上週三開盤之前公佈的消費者物價指數顯示，較二月只上漲0.1%，低於市場預期。市場樂觀的認為，通貨膨脹持續受到控制，聯準會沒有繼續升息的理由，所以帶動股市上漲。

聯準會預期在年底前可能發生“輕微”的經濟衰退

但是，在盤中公佈的三月份聯準會會議記錄顯示，聯準會已經預期在年底之前有可能會有輕微的經濟衰退，而且，即使如此他們並沒有完全打消要在五月份再次升息的念頭，於是股市開始下跌。但上週四公佈的三月份生產者物價指數較二月下跌，而且公佈的首次申請失業救濟人數較預期的增加，市場又感覺到經濟活動趨緩，通貨膨脹受到控制。於是上週四股市大漲，特別是近期對升息訊息敏感的納斯達克指數上漲接近2%。

升息循環進入尾聲 如何佈局？

不管五月份聯準會是否會升息，我們與市場的看法一致，這都將是這一次升息循環的尾聲。而根據過去的經驗，在聯準會最後一次升息到第一次降息之間通常防禦型的股票以及短期的公債表現會比較優異，而除了原油之外，通常大宗商品的表現不佳。美元通常會因為投資人安全性的考慮，資金回流而走強。以上，可以給大家作為一個近期資產配置的一個參考。

從技術面來看，過去兩週的市場走勢沒有超過我們在3月31號對市場預期的一個框架，3月31號當天就是納斯達克綜合指數的轉折點，而標普500也在今天觸及了4160點。我們依然認為，標普500突破2月2號高點的機率不高，之後有可能會回測3月13號的區間低點，也就是有可能會有一個10%左右的一個調整。大家如果有要調整投資組合的話可以參考之前提到表現會比較優異的防禦型的股票或是短期公債。

美國泛宇集團有超過30年的財務規劃與管理經驗，專業的六大管理板塊，橫跨地產、貸款、保險、投資、稅務服務、教育, 旗下5000+名合作獨立經紀人遍布全美各州與亞洲主要城市，是全美最大亞裔一站式全方位財富管理服務的標竿品牌。歡迎與泛宇聯絡，讓專業的團隊為您出謀劃策。

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