AI熱潮不退 科技能否消除經濟衰退？

納指創新高 物價指數穩居高位

AI仍帶給投資人無限的想像空間，上週四那斯達克指數突破了2021年11月的高點，站上了歷史新高，是三大指數中最後一個站上歷史高點的指數 。 上週四公佈的PCE「個人消費支出物價指數「雖然符合市場預期，但依然是一年以來的新高點，不足以然聯準會加速降息的腳步。

AI熱潮不退 聯準會仍不降息？

很顯然，對AI的狂熱戰勝了對聯準會遲遲不鬆口降息的恐懼，雖然如此，AI的熱潮並沒有能夠提升整體的科技業。 舉例來說，個人電腦的銷售沒有明顯的複甦，另一方面，標普500失去動能的狀況沒有明顯的改善，雖然目前還在上升趨勢中，但要留意未來可能出現的頭部訊號。

AI提升生產力 解決經濟衰退？

說到AI帶來的無限可能，很多人都會提到AI可以大幅提升人類的生產力，所以我們不會再受限於景氣循環的影響，簡單來說就是不會有經濟衰退。 我們完全同意AI對生產力的提升，但就像歷史上所有的重大發明，不管是1970年的微處理器或是1980年代的個人電腦，又或是2000年的網路網路，雖然都對生產力有 重大的提升，也有助於長期物價的控制，但是都無法阻止經濟衰退的發生。 這主要是因為景氣循環主要受人性也就是民眾預期以及實際需求落差的影響，而不是單純的技術問題。 當你聽到任何的技術可以排除人性的影響，譬如說現在有幾種很有效的減肥藥，而有人聲稱這些減肥藥可以大幅的提升效率，因為乘客體重減輕，就可以節省飛機的油料成本， 這些都屬於過於樂觀的預期。

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