Fed緩升1碼！聯準會仍不鬆口今年會降息？

上周有三個重大的事件影響了當週股市的發展

動向之一：聯準會升息0.25%

這與市場的預期一致，至於市場更重視的未來的政策走向，聯準會主席Jerome Powell表示，通貨膨脹逐漸開始受到控制但是依然沒有鬆口，聯準會會在今年降息。市場選擇相信前半段的說法，但是仍然認為聯準會在吹牛，今年一定會降息，因此帶動了股市的上漲。

動向之二：龍頭科技公司財報宣布上一季的營運數據以及未來的展望

首先是在周三盤後Meta也就是臉書公佈的上一季獲利數字其實差強人意，但因為對於未來的前景十分的樂觀，再加上400億的庫藏股計劃，Meta在周四的時候上漲了24%，也連帶的帶動了股市上漲。至於週四盤後，Apple Amazon以及Alphabet也就是Google母公司公佈的獲利數字都不理想。

動向之三：一月就業指數

新公佈的一月就業報告超乎預期的強勁，新增的非農就業人口超過50萬，且失業率再創新低來到3.4%。科技業的獲利不理想，再加上強勁的就業報告有可能讓聯準會無法如預期的降息，所以上週五開盤時股市大幅下跌，但是之後開始反彈。從基本面來看，科技業的獲利不理想顯示全球的需求開始降低，暗示著經濟活動開始趨緩。至於就業報告強勁當然是好事，但就業數據一向是落後指針，對於預測未來的經濟活動並沒有太大的幫助。

貨幣政策方面

聯準會降息過去從來沒有成功的阻止經濟衰退的發生 ，以及隨之而來的股市下跌。在市場目前接近超買的情況下，我們認為這一波的反彈並不值得持續的加碼。另外，在這一波反彈中，以成長股為首的納斯達克指數表現明顯優於以傳統價值股為主的道瓊工業指數，反轉了2022年的趨勢。但我們預期，這一波成長股表現優於價值股的走勢也即將告一段落，這里特別提醒各位朋友們注意！ ！

美國泛宇集團有超過30年的財務規劃與管理經驗，專業的六大管理板塊，橫跨地產、貸款、保險、投資、稅務服務、教育, 旗下5000+名合作獨立經紀人遍布全美各州與亞洲主要城市，是全美最大亞裔一站式全方位財富管理服務的標竿品牌。歡迎與泛宇聯絡，讓專業的團隊為您出謀劃策。

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